公務人員退休金制度改革與其勞動市場之實證分析

An Empirical Study on Public Employee Pension Reform and Government Employees’Labor Market

近年，我國公務人員退休金制度改革引起軒然大波，但國內卻鮮少對其勞動市場影響進行深入討論。為此，本文運用行政院主計總處(1992-1998，2008-2014)之人力運用調查資料，透過差異中差異(difference-in-differences, DID)及工具變數Probit模型，分析臺灣在1995年與2011年的兩次公務人員退休金制度改革，如何改變公務人員勞動市場之反應。研究結果發現，制度改革後明顯造成公務人員的退休金降低及薪資上升，雖符合學理上薪資與退休金之替代關係，但其顯著效果卻僅限於2011年改革後的次年；對於公務人員工作時數則出現增加趨勢，但效果須視改革幅度而定，尤以改革後第3年最為明顯。在勞動參與方面，退休金制度改革造成非公務人員投入公部門成為公務人員的機率具有負面影響，而公務人員退出公部門的機率則出現上升情形；但若地方選舉發生政黨輪替，個人以約聘僱人員身分進入公部門的機率則是正向影響。

Despite the uproar over public employee pension reforms, few studies examine the effect of the reforms on the labor market. This paper thus investigates the impacts of these reforms on government employees’labor market in Taiwan for 1995 and 2011, including wage rates, working hours, and labor participation. We also explore the relationship between the political factors of local elections and labor participation Applying the manpower utilization survey data, results from difference-in-differences (DID) analysis and instrumental variable Probit model suggest that public employee pension cuts did lead to an increase of wages in the year following the 2011 pension reform, which runs in accordance with the substitutability relationship between wage and pension as suggested by theory. In addition, the immediate effect of a pension cut on working hours depends on the magnitude of the reform, and the increase in working hours was most significant three years following the reform. Finally, public employee pension cuts spurred decreases in the probabilities of becoming public employees and increases in the probabilities of withdrawal from the public sector. Specifically, the probabilities of becoming contract employees rose when local elections resulted in a“switch”in the ruling political party.