臺灣與日本農業所得成長收斂之實證分析

An Empirical Study of Convergence in Japan and Taiwan Agriculture

本研究以新古典成長模型分析1970-1996年台灣與日本各縣市（都道府縣間的完所得及農業所得差距問題。實證結果顯示：1980年代中期之前，台灣各縣市間農家所得、農業所得差距有逐漸縮小的趨勢。在農業所得成長率迴歸式中，初期農業所得、農業依度、農業支出、耕地面積的大小均是影響台灣農業所得成長的重要因素。而日本由於各都道府縣之農業條件差異較大，在農家所得及農業所得並無絕對收斂之現象。在農業所得成長率迴歸式中，初期農業所得、農業依存度及部分期間的耕地面積大小是影響日本農業所得成長的重要因素，而農業支出對農業所得成長影響並不顯著。未來在WTO體制下，欲透過農業支出以提高農業成長似不可行。而台灣與日本由於地狹人稠，藉由擴大經營規模面積，以提高農業成長的效果有限。故若要提高農業所得的成長與平衡各縣市（都道府縣）農業所得差距，農業專業化程度的提高扮演重要的角色。

A modified Barro & Sala-i-Martin's neoclassical growth model was applied to Japan and Taiwan datasets over the period 1970-1996 to study the problems of farm family and agricultural income differences. The empirical results show that there were trends in convergence in the Taiwan farm family and agricultural income differences, but this trend became slower after the middle 1980s, and the agricultural income difference even began to expand. In the regression of Taiwan agricultural income growth, all of the initial agricultural income, degree of agricultural dependency, agricultural expenditure, and cultivated land area were important factors influencing Taiwan agricultural income growth. In contrast, because of more varied agricultural conditions in the Japanese prefectures, there were no absolute convergence in Japanese farm family and agricultural income. In the regression equation of agricultural income growth, the initial agricultural income, degree of agricultural dependency and cultivated land area in some periods were important factors influencing Japan's agricultural income growth, but the agricultural expenditure was not significant. Under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the intention to quicken agricultural growth in the short run by increasing agricultural. expenditure is an impossible mission. Because Japan and Taiwan share the features of scarce land relative to the mass population, the effect of increasing farm sizes on agricultural growth is limited. Therefore, the emphasis on professional farming might play an important role to increase agricultural income growth and to balance the distribution of prefecture (county) income.