台北都會區生活用水量之模式建構與模擬－－類神經網路模式之應用－－

Modeling and Simulating on Residential Water Use in Taipei Metropolitan Area : An Application of the Artificial Neural Network Model

近年來，台北都會區由於人口逐漸密集與經濟活動不斷成長，使該都會區生活用水與日俱增。基於都會區生活與發展的持續性，能正確預估都會區生活用水量，是未來有效調派該項用水的關鍵。本文採用類神經網路系統（artificial neural network system）建構台北都會區生活用水量之相關模式，並進一步模擬預測。實証結果指出所建構之類神經網路模式能顯現有效的模擬效果（simulation effect），相關資訊亦可供政策當局改善都會區生活用水效率之參考。

Recently, the growth of population and the frequency of commercial activities have cause residential water use to increase rapidly in Taipei Metropolitan Area. Since people life, social and economic development which related water utilization in this area have to be sustained. To forecast the quantity of the residential water accurately is important to improve water allocation in this area.This paper attempts to build a model which can simulate the situation of residential water use in this area by applying the artificial neural network methodology. The empirical results indicate that the model we have constructed here has produced good simulation effect and given some suggestions for promoting water utilization in this area.