六方會談前期協商之過程論分析

Process Analysis Perspective of Pre-negotiation of Six Party Talks on 2010-11

六方會談影響東北亞國際安全甚鉅，也是東北亞區域近來最受矚目的集體安全機制，2003年至今已進行六輪。學界對此，分為「多邊機制成形」之樂觀論與「中國崛起必然現象」之悲觀論兩種看法。本文嘗試由2010年10月至2011年6月中，六方國家行為者的主要互動，以「過程論」的方式，來觀察六方會談的實際狀態。本文整理發現六方會談的進程，有「韓國倡議→韓美協商→朝鮮回應→中朝協調→美中協調→多邊協調」的階段特色。並且，依照動態過程論可以明顯看出，東北亞依然遵循冷戰架構，依舊存在兩陣營代理人談判的狀態

Six-Party Talks is the most important collective security mechanism in Northeast Asia, and effects international security seriously. From 2003, it has been carried out six. Scholars have divided into two-ways perspective, which are the optimism, multilateral mechanism forming, and the pessimism, inevitable China rising. This paper attempts to observe the major actors of the six-party talks by process analysis approach from October 2010 to mid-June 2011. It found that the six-party talks process is followed by phase characteristics, which are ''South Korea Initiative→Korea-US consultations→North Korea respond→China coordination→United States and China agency coordination→multilateral coordination.'' According to the dynamic process analysis, we could clearly clarify it is still follow the Cold War structure in Northeast Asia, and two camps still are working by negotiating agent.