冷戰後美中戰略關係演變：邁向「戰略穩定」的核關係？

The Evolution of U.S.-China Strategic Relationship after the End of the Cold War: Towards the Nuclear Relationship of ''Strategic Stability''？

從2010年4月美國的新版「核武評估報告」，可看出美國對和中國的戰略關係之日益重視。美國政府首次在討論「戰略穩定」問題時，將中國和俄國相提並論，這似乎在反映中國近來快速崛起的發展，使北京既有財力也有決心來部署並保持第二次打擊能力的戰略現實。而這是否暗示著美國將像對待俄國那樣，同意與中國建立相互威懾和相互脆弱性的關係呢?此些發展可說提供給彼此一個塑造雙方關係的新戰略方向的機會。本文之主要研究目的，便在探討此一「戰略穩定」關係的出現所代表的意含，及其對臺海安全的影響。本文從影響美中戰略關係中的一些變項，例如中國二代核武的發展、美國飛彈防禦計劃、美國「延伸嚇阻」之安全承諾的可信度，及東亞核不擴散機制等變數之間的相互關連，探討此一美中「戰略穩定」關係的出現，未來將如何演變及影響東亞和臺海戰略

From the April 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, increasing American concern for strategic relations with China is readily apparent. For the first time, in discussing ''strategic stability'' the American government placed China on par with Russia, a development clearly reflective of Beijing's resources and resolve to deploy and maintain a second strike capability on the heels of its speedy rise. But does this indicate that the U.S. is ready to view China in the same light as Russia and establish relations of mutual deterrence and vulnerability? These developments could very well mark a mutual opportunity to form a new bilateral strategic relationship. The primary purpose of this paper is to facilitate discussion of what exactly this ''strategic stability'' portends and the effect it may have on security in the Taiwan Strait. This paper examines a number of variables, including China's development of second generation nuclear weapons, American missile defense plans, the credibility of U.S. commitments to extended deterrence, and nuclear proliferation in East Asia, whose interaction is capable of affecting Sino-American relations to discuss the emergence of ''strategic stability'' between the U.S. and China and to predict the future evolution of this relationship and it's implications for East Asia and the strategic situation in the Taiwan Strait.