不確定年代下的台日關係發展

Taiwan-Japan Relations in an Era of Uncertainty

台灣與日本不僅目前都受到亞太地亞太地區權力平衡變遷之影響，隨著它們與中國大陸之間互賴程度日漸增長，一旦前述兩種情勢之互動出現負面發展，其國家安全也會受到波及。其中，兩者與美國所維持之非正式與正式的聯盟關係，雖有助於其抗衡中國威脅，但也可能將其拉進中美衝突的漩渦；再加上台灣所擁有之特殊國際地位，這使台日雖有加強合作的誘因，仍必須小心為之。相較於直接進行軍事防務合作，雙方更可能從非傳統安全議題切入。在本文中，個人便試圖觀察並檢測台日關係之現狀與可能發展，同時分析它們強化雙邊合作的潛在性。

Taiwan and Japan are acutely affected by shifting power balances in the Asia-Pacific. While increasing economic interdependence with China works to secure economic prosperity and reduce tensions, negative shifts in the strategic balance portend adverse long-term implications for both countries' national security. Informal and formal alignment with the U.S. reassures Taipei and Tokyo in the face of a potential Chinese threat but simultaneously generates concerns that Sino-American rivalry will entrap them in a great conflict. As a result of these external contexts and Taiwan's unofficial diplomatic status, moves to solidify bilateral relations, though mutually desirable, must be handled with caution. Instead of direct military-defense cooperation, Taiwan and Japan might profitably explore collaboration on non-traditional security issues. In this article, I'll examine the substance and dynamics of contemporary Taiwan-Japan relations and consider potential avenues for the consolidation and expansion of bilateral cooperation.