話中有話：以「自動化內容分析」解讀北韓的核子語言

Reading between the Lines: Automated Content Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Rhetoric

雖然韓戰早已成為遙遠的歷史回憶，但兩韓關係自冷戰時期僅有些微改善，2010年朝鮮半島更因為天安艦事件、延坪島砲擊、北韓政權交接等，情勢再度緊張。六方會談在近期內似乎難以再啟動，北韓核武發展乃是抵制兩韓和美朝關係改善的主要因素。北韓政權的封閉性使外界無法透內容分析，透過以電腦軟體耙梳資訊的方式，追蹤和解讀平壤的政策意涵。1946年成立的朝鮮中央通信社為北韓政權的官方宣傳部門，其新聞報導在某種程度上代表官方立場，亦是外界觀察北韓發展的主要管道之一。以朝鮮中央通信社的報導為基礎，本文藉由分析對於核武研發進程、相關決策人士及2010年朝鮮半島情勢報導的比例和報導之間的連結，試說明北韓政府希望外界如何看待其發展。本文試指出平壤對於六方會談與會國在描述上的差異性，以及此差異對於爭端解決的暗示。

Although the Korean War may have ended in Western minds in 1953, North Korean views of inter-Korean relations have remained largely tied to its Cold War origins. Despite this challenge, little is known about how North Korean leadership views the outside world. While 2010 may be remembered more for two high profile military skirmishes (the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island) as well as the rise of the third generation of the Kim dynasty (Kim Jong Un), the lack of progress on nuclear talks should not be overshadowed. Pyongyang's nuclear program remains the largest obstruction to improving inter-Korean and US-DPRK relations. This paper uses 2010 as a case study of how North Korea attempts to frame its nuclear program vis-à-vis its neighbors and the US. Using daily news reports from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), this paper suggests that North Korea largely identifies nuclear issues with the US in contrast to the other parties in the Six Party talks. Furthermore, the nuclear rhetoric negative correlates with references to contemporary military conflicts or Kim Jong Un.