東北亞區域安全困境與安全建制之未來

Cooperate or Not: Security Dilemma and the Future of Security Regime in Northeast Asia

為何在冷戰結束後，東北亞地區始終未出現以多邊協商為主的安保建制？本文認為其原因有二：其一，以權力平衡為基礎的安保架構自冷戰以來有效地維繫和平，也消彌了改變的動力；其次，東北亞各國間的認同差異與核心利益衝突、大國與小國對合作模式（建制內容）的偏好差異、大國對彼此意圖的懷疑，而北韓核武危機爆發後，上述四個變數進一步形成多方安全困境，各國不但懷疑彼此意圖，更傾向增加自保能力；而在安全困境與歷史因素的交雜下，東北亞很難出現安全建制，權力平衡可能還是未來東北亞局勢穩定的基礎。

Why security regime based on multilateralism did not appear in Northeast Asia even in the era of post-cold war? In this essay, two reasons have been concluded: Firstly, the rough peace has been maintained by the security framework composed of balance of power since 1945, and the dynamic for change has been eliminated by that. Secondly, the conflict of core interests and identification between those countries, the differences among the preference to how to cooperate between the great powers and middle power, the doubts about each intention between great powers have been created the complicated security dilemma by the nuclear crisis on Korea peninsula. Those countries have been not only suspicious of others and tended to increase power for the sake of self-protection. Finally, because of the complicated security dilemma and those historical factors, security regime is quiet hard to appear in Northeast Asia, and in the visible future, balance of power may be still the foundation of stability in Northeast Asia.