轉換期下日本憲法改正議題與防衛政策演進

Constitutional Amendment and Its Impact on Defense Policy during Japan's Transitional Period

日本首相安倍晉三在深陷森友學園等醜聞風暴之際，斷然藉改選國會力挽狂瀾，最終於大選中擊潰以東京都知事小池百合子為首的在野勢力，並第四度出任日本首相。此舉一方面有助其重新穩固政權，並可視為對安倍誓言推動實施 70 週年日本新憲法第 9 條改正與堅定處理北韓威脅的信任投票。不可諱言的是，安倍面臨的挑戰斷難輕忽，如憲法第 96 條規定修憲門檻過高，仍待適予調低；在野黨的干擾只增不減，民間正反意見猶待博弈；內部既滿佈複雜之社經難題，外部則要面對北韓核武危機、中國大陸崛起進逼及美日如何強化安全同盟等嚴峻情勢，舉凡皆為安倍修憲之路徒增困難。目前觀察得知，安倍為降低修憲阻力，可能在不觸及第 9條原有條文內容下，明確定位「自衛隊的存在」，其後再透過其他立法擴大自衛隊運作權限與活動範圍；若然，既可能對日本自詡的「戰後和平主義」美名帶來衝擊，亦將對亞太安全整體格局產生鉅大影響。

In the midst of the recent Morimoto Gakuen scandal, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap election in a last ditch effort to maintain power. As expected, on October 22nd, Shinzo Abe annihilated the opposition party, led by Tokyo's popular governor Yuriko Koike. This victory not only re-stabilized the Abe administration, but strengthened the public's trust and faith towards him, specifically in his promise to promote the amendment to Article 9 of the 70 year-old Japanese Constitution and his undeterred determination to deal with threats from North Korea. Undeniably, Abe are faced by some difficulties that is hard to be ignored, such as Article 96 of the Japanese Constitution, which set the bar to amend any article a bit too high, thus should be lowered at a suitable time. Examining the current situation, in order to minimize the opposition to his proposal of revising the constitution, Abe may clarify the need for Japanese Self-Defense Forces without revising the original provisions listed in Article 9. As long as it is in accordance with the original law, the military can still enable long range projection (in self-defense) through the establishment of other laws to expand the jurisdiction and range of activities of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. By doing so, it will undoubtedly impact the ''post-war pacifism'' ideal that Japan has always pride themselves with. Additionally, it will hugely affect the security of the entire Asia Pacific structure.