為什麼不認輸：強與弱的敵對關係

Why Doesn't the Weak Submit to the Strong?

本文探論弱國面對強國的威脅時為何不認輸，並且從解答的過程中分析戰爭歷史、國際關係理論、國內政治因素等等題目。文獻探討中統整出3 個主要不認輸的理由，分別是國際關係架構、戰場勝負不明、國內因素變化。接下來檢索戰爭相關資料庫（Correlates of War），選擇符合時代性強弱配對的戰爭 31 個，分類為非國與國的強弱對抗 12 個、國家實力接近的強弱對抗 11 個、國家實力懸殊的強弱對抗八個，然後與三個主要不認輸理由進行交叉分析。研究結論為，國內因素往往是最核心的不認輸理由，對勝負不明的憧憬幫助弱國壯膽，而國際架構並沒有在戰爭的抉擇時發揮關鍵力量。本研究進一步提供三點啟發，第一，對強國來說，強凌弱很難獲得戰場勝利與長期利益，第二，對弱國來說，經濟交流與政治開放是避免戰爭的最好方法，第三，國際關係理論需要多注意價值觀與文化面向的重要性，以產出務實的戰爭和平理論。

The ancient realist notion stated that ''the strong do as they can and the weak suffer what they must.'' However, cross the world and over the time, there have been more than enough cases showing that weak state does not necessarily submit to the strong state in the international relations. This paper studied the reason why don't they submit. The searching process to the answer explored the history of wars, international relations theory and domestic politics. Conducting data analysis in the Correlates of War dataset, the main findings of this research is: not international structure or strategies in the battlefield, but the domestic political factors played a more important role in explaining weak states' decision making when facing a stronger enemy.