從國內政治與國際因素分析烏克蘭危機

The Analysis of International Factors and Domestic Politics of the Ukrainian Crisis

自蘇聯解體烏克蘭獨立以來，民眾對於國家未來的發展方向卻沒有一致的看法，國內有親歐與親俄民眾的針鋒相對，國外有西方與俄羅斯的外交角力，東部分離主義的戰鬥也方興未艾。原本一場抗議政府暫停入歐談判的示威遊行，竟演變成克里米亞公投脫離烏克蘭的局面。烏克蘭長期以來一直在歐盟與俄羅斯兩個巨人中間左右權衡，甚至形成東部「親俄」與西部「親歐」的格局，即使是本國的政黨和民眾，也無法在外交政策上形成統一的意見。目前，烏克蘭的「半總統制」下的政治往往是一種零和博弈，導致了烏克蘭東部與西部的政治分裂與兩極分化。要避免烏克蘭的國家分裂，讓民主政治穩定持續的運作，只依靠國內的政治制度，恐無法有效解決問題，因為真正造成烏克蘭陷入政治動盪主因，主要源自國際大環境下歐盟與俄羅斯在後蘇聯空間（post-Soviet space）下的零和競爭。

Since the dissolution of Soviet Union and the independence of Ukraine, people did not have a consistent view over the future development of the country. At domestic level, the pro-European and pro-Russian people were in diametric opposition, while at the international level, the Western countries were in diplomatic wrestling together with the struggling of the Eastern separatists. It was actually a demonstration protesting against the government for suspending the talk with the European Union, but later it turned into the Crimean status referendum to separate from Ukraine and to join the Russian Federation. Yanukovych did meet the opposition's requirements at that moment, yet he was later ousted by the Congress. For a long time, Ukraine has been in the middle of the two giants, Russia and the European Union, resulting in the Eastern ''pro-Russian'' part and Western ''pro-European'' part. Even the country's political parties and the people could not reach a unified opinion on their foreign policy. Currently, the Ukrainian politics of ''semi-presidentialism'' tends to be a zero-sum game leading towards the political division and polarization of the east and the west. To avoid political division and to keep a stable operation of the democracy, it is not enough to depend on the domestic political system as it cannot effectively solve the problem. The main reason that has caused the Ukrainian political turmoil has always been the zero-sum competition of Russia and the European Union at the post-Soviet space within the international environment.