建交後越南對中國的避險戰略

Vietnam's Hedging Strategy against China since Normalization

自從1991 年中越關係常規化後，越南對中國政策一直以多重的方式發展，貼切的形容便是多邊、全面的避險策略。本文主張避險對越南來說，是處理與中國關係，包括歷史經驗、國內與雙邊局勢以及越南對外關係和國際策略環境中，最理性和可行的選項。本文欲檢驗此策略的四個要素，即經濟實用主義、直接保證、硬平衡和軟平衡。文章以下會評估每個要素的重要性、以及中越關係常規化後，越南如何去追求其避險策略的細節。

Since the normalization of Sino-Vietnamese relations in 1991, Vietnam's China policy has been shaped by a combination of approaches which can be best described as a multi-tiered, omni-directional hedging strategy. The article argues that hedging is the most rational and viable option for Vietnam to manage its relations with China given its historical experiences, domestic and bilateral conditions, as well as changes in Vietnam's external relations and the international strategic environment. The article examines the four major components of this strategy, namely economic pragmatism, direct engagement, hard balancing and soft balancing. The article goes on to assess the significance of each component and details how Vietnam has pursued its hedging strategy towards China since normalization.