總統選舉來臨對大陸政策合作衝突方向的影響：2008年大選前的檢視

The Impact of an Upcoming Presidential Election on Taiwan's Mainland Policy: The Case of Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Election

本文探討2008 年台灣總統大選的即將舉行是否引導了選舉前衝突性大陸政策的出現。經由統計分析及個案分析發現，台灣在2008 年總統大選來臨之前確實出現了對中國大陸具有挑釁性質的政策，這主要是陳水扁總統所發起的「公民投票加入聯合國運動」。其動機包括尋求個人歷史地位、脫離個人政治危機、鞏固其綠營領導地位、以及重振民進黨的選戰士氣。

This article investigates if the approach of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election led to the appearance of conflictual Mainland policies. Using both statistical analysis and case study analysis, this research finds that a confrontational Mainland policy, which is mainly President Chen's ''UN membership referendum'' campaign, did emerge prior to the 2008 presidential election. Chen's motives included searching for his historical status, solving his personal political crisis, consolidating his leadership in the Green camp, and rebooting the DPP's morale in the election campaign.