日本稻米生產調整政策效果與稻農生產調整速度之研究：1996-2002

Effect of Japanese Rice Production Adjustment Policy on Paddy Farms: 1996-2002

本文利用稻作農家生產調整比率之部分調整模型，分析1996-2002年，日本生產調整對策的效果。實證結果顯示：稻作補貼、稻作收入、和地租對長期稻米生產調整比率均有負面的影響；農業所得率則有正面影響。而稻農生產調整比率之調整速度在1998年之後，明顯加快。勞動集約度越高的稻農，生產調整速度越快；資本集約度和租地比率對調整速度有負面的影響；生產調整實施率和待調整距離對調整速度則有正面影響。此外，由於稻作收入及地租與生產調整比率呈反向關係，表示生產調整在稻米主產地及良質米產地推行不易，因此生產調整應著重在非稻米主產地，並根據地區特性，研擬適當的轉作作物，才能有效解決稻米供需失調的問題。

A partial adjustment model was used to analyze the effect of Japanese production policy on the paddy farms during the period of 1996-2002. The empirical results show that the compensation on rice production, rice revenues, and level of rent all had a negative effect on the long-term ratio of rice production adjustment while the ratio of agricultural income had a positive effect. The farmers with higher labor intensity, fulfilled ratio of production adjustment, or adjustment differential would adjust at a faster speed. However, those with higher capital intensity or higher ratio of rented land would adjust at a slower pace. Moreover, it is suggested to focus the production adjustment policy on the conversion of farmland in the non-primary-rice-producing areas and to choose proper crops to substitute for rice according to the characteristics of areas.