菸品健康福利捐對香菸消費量及產業之影響

The Impact of Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax on Cigarette Consumption and Tobacco Industry in Taiwan

本文利用可計算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium ,CGE)及Central Bureal Statistics需求體系模型來評估菸品健康福利捐實施對我國香菸消費量、香菸產業及總體經濟結構的影響。實證結果顯示，2002年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)後，實施菸酒新稅制並課徵菸品健康福利捐，將使國人平均每人消費量減少18%，國內生產毛額因而下降0.013%，家計單位的福利水準增加13,098.895百萬元新台幣。整體而言，菸品產業所受的衝擊遠大於總體經濟結構。在國產、進口菸的價格彈性−0.645及−0.818的前提下，若健康福利捐再調漲5元，將使國人平均每人國產香菸及進口香菸消費再減少4.25包及4.93包，合計平均每人的香菸消費量減少9.18包，平均每人香菸消費量減少8.58%。此時新的香菸消費量減少至17.9億包（以2004年人口計算），政府菸稅收益為390.32億元，其中菸品健康福利捐約179億元，即菸品健康福利捐可多增收89.52億元。

In this study, the multisectors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and Central Bureal Statistics (CBS)demand system model used to evaluate the effect of Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax on the consumption of tobacco and what impact it brings to the national economics. We found that the new tax shceme implemented after Taiwan joined the WTO reduced cigarette consumption by 22.72 packs/person(18%). Reduction of cigarette consumption would lead to a GDP decrease of 0.013% (1.275 billion NT) and lead to the household welfare increase of 13.098 billion NT. Furthermore, if there were another increase in the Tobacco, Health and Welfare tax, for example, from 5NT/pack to 10NT/pack, a rise of 5 NT per pack. The results showed that the price-elasticity coefficients for domestic and imported cigarettes were -0.645 and -0.818 respectively. The consumption of imported cigarettes was reduced by 4.93 packs per capita, and the consumption of domestic cigarettes reduced by 4.25 packs per capita. Therefore, total per capita consumption of cigarettes reduced by 9.18 packs (8.58%). And cigarette consumption would further reduced to 1.79 billion packs(based on a population count of 2004), with a revenue of tobacco excise taxes 39.032 billion NT, including the tobacco Health and Welfare tax of 17.9 billion. We estimate that the further rise of tobacco Health and Welfare tax from 5NT to 10NT would lead to another 8.95 billion NT increase in revenues from the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax.