探討不確定住房需求對旅館成本結構之影響：台灣國際觀光旅館之實證研究

Uncertain Lodging Demand and Hotel Costs: An Empirical Study of International Tourist Hotels in Taiwan

旅館產業常面臨需求市場的劇烈波動，因此其經營策略有許多機動性的調整，以作為因應，可見旅館經營需有效考量市場需求的不確定性。然而，有關旅館產業之研究卻鮮少考量此一現象，因此本研究嘗試建立一個符合旅館產業特性的成本函數，將住宿需求的不確定性納入旅館成本的預測模型中。我們利用觀光局所公佈之1998年至2007年台灣國際觀光旅館年度營運資料進行實證分析，結果發現：當台灣國際觀光旅館面對較大的住房需求不確定性，將導致其住房率較低，閒置成本明顯增加，整體估計若單一國際旅館住房率減少1%，旅館成本每年平均上升新台幣1,563,304元，此估計架構可提供旅館調整房宿價格或人力分配等決策之損益參考，另一方面提供政府瞭解觀光旅館的風險成本。

One fundamental and awkward issue for hotel management is to face and deal with the highly fluctuate and uncertain demand for lodging service. Previous studies related to analyze hotel industries often ignore this issue. Therefore, this study develops a cost function with concern of demand uncertainty by investigating the annual financial statement data from Taiwan's international tourist hotels, published by Taiwan Tourism Bureau over the period of 1998-2007. Our results show that the uncertainty in hotel room demand has a significant and positive impact on the hotel costs. The model also predicts that the decrease of the occupancy rate by 1% will increase the average cost of a hotel by NTD1,563,304 annually. The method can provide hotels to precisely consider their pricing strategy or human resource management, and also provide the government to understand the risk faced by the hotel industry.