中國汽車銷售量影響因素之研究-以季節為調節變數

Research on the Impact Factors of Automobile Sales Volume in China-Seasonality as a Moderator

中國汽車產業發展已成為國民經濟發展的重要產業之一。本研究以內部因素(廣告支出)、季節性因素(季節變動)、趨勢性因素(高鐵營業哩程數、消費者物價指數)與不規則因素(原油價格、貸款利率、進口關稅稅率、及金融危機)分別探討對國產汽車及非國產汽車之銷售量影響，結果發現廣告支出對國產及非國產汽車之銷售量存在倒U型之非線性關係。季節對廣告支出之調節效果存在於國產及非國產汽車銷售量模型中，且在第一季、第二季與第四季對銷售量有顯著正向影響。而金融危機、原油價格、貸款利率、進口關稅稅率對汽車銷售量有負向影響，高鐵營業哩程數對汽車銷售量有顯著正向影響。最後，本研究結果證實中國汽車之銷售支持刺激反應理論。

 

Chinese automobile industry has become one of the important industries for the development of the national economy. This paper examines the impact of internal factor (advertising expenditure), seasonality, trend factors (mileage of high-speed rail, consumer price index) and irregular factors (crude oil price, loan interest rate, import tariff rate, and financial crisis) on the sales volume of domestic-produced automobile and foreign-produced automobile, respectively. The results suggest that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the advertising expenditure and sales volume of domestic-produced automobile and foreign-produced automobile. The seasonal moderator to advertising expenditures also significantly exists in both sales volume models, especially increase in the first, second, and fourth quarter. Moreover, financial crisis, crude oil price, loan interest rate, import tariff rate have a significantly negative impact on automobile sales. In additional, mileage of high-speed rail has a significantly positive impact on automobile sales. Finally, the results of study conform to the stimulus-response theory.