基於TOPSIS及GM(1,1)模型評比臺灣營建業上市公司未來營運績效

Evaluation of the Future Operating Performance of Listed Companies in Taiwan’s Construction Industry Based on TOPSIS and GM(1,1) Models

TOPSIS係理想解類似度偏好順序評估法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)之簡稱，此方法雖可評估不同方案間之最佳方案，惟所評估資料係針對各方案現況之事實數據作分析，並無法預測未來不同方案間評比後可能產生之最優方案。本研究主要貢獻在於將TOPSIS結合GM(1,1)預測模型有效預測各評估指標項目之未來值，將所預測之各指標項目未來值提供TOPSIS評估法作未來營運績效之評比，以突破TOPSIS評估法無法預測未來最優方案之限制。最後依據實證結果比較各營建業上市公司之未來營運績效與現行營運績效差異，並提出相較僅就現行營運績效更具參考價值之營運政策建議。 本文應用TOPSIS及GM(1,1)模型評比臺灣營建業上市公司之未來營運績效，依據2020年預測值與2019年現況值之評估與分析後發現，現況與預測年度之營運績效皆進入前5名之營建業為2家。另營運績效評比順序排名進步的營建業有9家，退步的則有7家營建業，評比排序皆保持不變的營建業有2家。藉由2年度(當年度與未來一年度) 之排序異同，將可比單年度之比較成果更顯示臺灣營建業上市公司營運績效之未來差異，此顯示臺灣營建業上市公司之營運績效排序，將因環境及同行競爭而產生劇烈變化，營建業需定期審視與同業評比之相對產出成果，俾可適時審視及調整自身之營運政策來加以因應。

 

TOPSIS is the abbreviation of “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution”. Although this method can evaluate the best solution between different schemes, the assessment data is based on the analysis of the factual data of the current situation of each scheme, and it is impossible to predict the optimal scheme that may be generated after the comparison between different schemes in the future. The main contribution of this study is to effectively predict the future value of each evaluation indicator project by combining TOPSIS with GM (1,1) prediction model. The predicted future value of each indicator project is provided to the TOPSIS assessment method for future operational performance. To overcome the limits of TOPSIS method that cannot predict future optimal solutions. Finally, based on the empirical results, the differences between the future operating performance of the listed companies and the current operating performance are compared, and the operating policy recommendations more valuable than the current operating performance are proposed. This paper applied TOPSIS and GM(1,1) models to evaluate the future business performance of listed companies in Taiwan’s construction industry. Based on the evaluation and analysis of the 2020 forecast and the current status of 2019, it is found that belonging to the top five operating performance of the current and forecasting years is only two construction industries. Additionally, there are 9 construction industries with improved operational performance rankings, 7 construction companies that have regressed rankings and 2 construction industries with the same ranking. By comparing the rankings of the two years (the current year and the next year), the comparison results will show more future valuable differences than that of the single year in the operating performance of the listed companies in Taiwan. This shows that the operating performance ranking of listed companies in Taiwan’s construction industry will change dramatically due to environmental and peer competition. The construction industry needs to regularly review the relative output results of peer-to-peer comparisons, and respond to them by reviewing and adjusting their own operating policies in a timely manner.