衡量我國地方政府財務狀況及其影響因素之分析

Assessing Financial Condition of Local Governments in Taiwan and Investigating its Determinants

本研究利用衡量地方政府短期支付的現金償付能力、衡量支應歲出的預算償付能力、衡量償還長期債務的長期償付能力，以及衡量地方政府永續提供居民所需公共服務的服務水準償付能力等4個面向，共12項指標衡量我國地方政府的綜合財務狀況。衡量結果顯示我國不同層級、產業特性或地理區位的地方政府財務狀況存在顯著的差異。本研究更進一步以追蹤資料估計方法探究影響地方財務狀況的因素。迴歸分析結果顯示營利事業營業額與地方財務狀況呈正相關；居民總數、社會福利支出占歲出比重與地方財務狀況呈負相關；地方財務狀況在選舉年度劣於非選舉年度；整體地方財務狀況在樣本期間有逐年下滑的趨勢，且在2007-2008全球金融危機後 (2009年) 表現最糟。本研究是國內第一個嘗試全面性地衡量地方財務狀況並探討其影響因素的研究。地方財務狀況的衡量結果可增加民眾對地方政府的課責性，並促進地方政府間的競爭。中央政府、地方行政及立法部門亦可透過實證結果，對地方財務狀況作更有效的管理措施。

 

This study assesses financial condition of local governments in Taiwan based on four dimension indicators, namely cash solvency, budget solvency, long-term solvency, and service-level solvency. There are a total of 12 indicators examined in this study. The assessment shows that there exist significant differences in financial conditions among different levels, industrial characteristics, and locations of local governments. In addition, this study applies the panel data estimation methodology to investigating determinants of local governments’ financial conditions. The fixed effect model estimation results show that the business sales amount is positively correlated with the local government’s financial condition; on the other hand, the number of residents and the ratio of social welfare expenditures to total expenditures are negatively correlated. The local financial problems in election years are much more severe than others. Controlling for potential determinants, there also shows downward trend in comprehensive financial condition indicator, implying that the local financial condition becomes worse and worse during the sample period. Moreover, the overall local financial condition performs worst in 2009, right after the global financial crisis of 2007-08. To the best of our knowledge, the study represents the first attempt to assess the financial condition of local government in Taiwan. The results of assessing financial condition could be used by local governments to enhance accountability and to increase local government competitiveness. The central government, local government executives and legislators could also utilize the evidence to make effective policy pertaining to the financial conditions of local government.