少子高齡社會與年金制度改革――檢視年金制度改革在年金財務永續之侷限性

Population Aging, Declining Birthrate Society and Pension Reforms

The main pension systems in Taiwan will successively fail within 15 years in the future because of several contributing factors, such as high annuity rates, low contribution rates, population aging and declining birthrate. Especially, the factor of declining birth rate is the most critical one. From last year, some main reform proposals on pension system, such as abolishing benefit of interest on deposits, lowering income replacement rate to below 70%, raising contribution rate to 18% and raising pensionable age, are positively propelled by the new administration. Nevertheless, above-mentioned reform proposals are plainly for dealing with high only 3 above factors, annuity rates, low contribution rates and population aging. The factor of declining birthrate is not regarded as a critical factor. Therefore this essay especially reviewed the limitation on possible effects from those pension reform proposals for balanced finance of pension system from a viewpoint of population aging and declining birthrate, and intend to call people’s attention to this problem to take necessary and effective measures against the factor of declining birthrate.