整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式之建立－以新北市汐止區為例

Establishing the Integrated Model of Landslide and Debris Flow in Xizhi District, New Taipei City

本研究旨於研提整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式，據此探討極端降雨對山坡地社區之衝擊。研究區域以新北市汐止區為例，以二元迴歸模式(logistic regression)建立廣域崩塌潛勢評估模式，輔以土壤厚度經驗式推估崩塌體積，將崩塌體積視為土石流發生重要因子，結合Hunt’s模式模擬土石流動境況，建立「整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式」，考量汐止區極端水文事件納莉颱風及現行水利署公開之氣候變遷A1B情境雨量，分別探討各種極端降雨情境對山坡地衝擊程度，提供主管機關進行詳細調查、監測管理及災害調適策略研擬參考，期防患於未然，減少災害發生之損失。

Integrated Model of Landslide and Debris Flow (ILDF) was proposed to explore the impact of hillside residential communities under extreme rainfall scenarios in this study. Taking the Xizhi District of New Taipei City as an example, the study would establish (1) an assessment model for landslide susceptibility by logistic regression; (2) an estimation of landslide volume with soil depth empirical formula; (3) integration of landslide volume and debris flow to develop the ILDF. The impact of hillside under different extreme rainfall scenarios, such as Typhoon Nari and the rainfall prediction model of climate change (A1B scenario of Water Resources Agency) were discussed. The results of this study could serve as a reference to central and local governments for field investigation, monitoring and adaptation planning.