新北市里層級之水災暨坡地災害脆弱性分析：全盤型脆弱性管理架構的初步應用

Comprehensive Vulnerability Management Framework of Village Vulnerability Assessment to Floods and Landslides in New Taipei City: A Preliminary Empirical Study

近年來，透過評估社區或地區的災害脆弱性，作為探究地方災害防救政策之依 據，已是公共行政學界從事災害防救研究的新興課題。本研究引用 McEntire（2005） 的「全盤型脆弱性管理」概念與其所提出的脆弱性內涵分析架構，運用潛在全象分 析法，探討新北市 1,032 個里的水災與坡地災害脆弱性，發展相應指標進行災害脆 弱性評估，指標中所運用的數據均來自政府機關的官方資料庫、開放資料平臺。本 研究將脆弱程度相似的里予以分群，進而針對不同特性的群體，分別提出增強其應 變災害能力的相關討論。研究發現，新北市共有 27 個里對於水災與坡地災害同時具 有高度的脆弱性，據此，本研究建議：第一，市政府應建立跨局處的機制，並結合 市府、公所、民間、學界的力量，規劃補強策略；第二，市府與公所應全面提升這 些里的避難、救難、物資、醫療、長照等各類防救災資源的可近性；第三，建議將 這些里列為推動自主防災社區的重點對象，積極強化里民的災害風險意識；第四，針對山區與沿海地區，增強物資、醫療與長照資源；第五，中央與市府、公所須合作以確保防災設施功能正常運作。

Community-based hazard vulnerability assessments have gradually become a critical research topic, which attracts public administration scholars who focus on emergency management and disaster policy. This paper adopts the concept of comprehensive vulnerability management and applies McEntire's (2005) theoretical framework to conduct village-based floods and landslides vulnerability assessment in New Taipei City by using Latent Profile Analysis. Indicators and measures in each dimension are public available records from official datasets or governmental open data platform. Total 1,032 villages in New Taipei City are clustered as different groups based on their characteristics related to vulnerability to floods and landslides. The findings show 27 villages are particularly vulnerable to both hazards. We propose five suggestions to enhance those villages' disaster response capability. Firstly, the city government should organize a cross-functional team to develop response strategies and plans about these vulnerable villages. Secondly, resource accessibility related to sheltering, rescuing, goods and materials, medical services, and long-term care services in these villages should be enhanced. Thirdly, the idea of disaster-resilience community should be promoted and implemented to these village residents to increase their disaster risk awareness. Fourthly, resource availability of goods and materials, medical services, and long-term care services in mountain and coastal areas need to be improved. Fifthly, governments at all levels should cooperate with each other closely to certify all disaster-prevention infrastructures function properly.