東亞安全秩序建構：霸權穩定、權力平衡與多邊機制的思辯

Constructing East Asia's Security Order: An Analysis of Hegemonic Stability, Balance of Power, and Multilateral Institutions

東亞安全環境在進入21世紀後出現新的變化，區域內同時存在「經濟發展」與「戰略競爭」兩種現象，使東亞區域安全秩序建構，出現各種可能的想像。本文試圖透過「霸權穩定」、「權力平衡」與「多邊機制」三種途徑，解釋現階段東亞安全秩序的發展，同時評估三種不同途徑對區域安全的影響。研究發現，上述三種途徑均能對東亞區域安全秩序建構，提供若干解釋。首先，東亞國家建構區域安全秩序的目標，均在於確保經濟繁榮與國家生存。目前除了中國的戰略意圖受到質疑外，「維持現狀」是大多數東亞國家建構區域安全秩序的主要目標。其次，東亞地區在建構安全秩序時，針對「低階政治」議題，已透過區域多邊機制（例如東協）的運作，約束各國的國際行為，建立區域內行為典範。但對於「高階政治」議題，如涉及主權爭議的朝鮮半島與台海安全問題，則由美國此一超強強權透過外交手段、軍事介入或大國協商，管理危機情勢的升高。最後，本文發現，東亞國家在上述三種建構區域安全秩序途徑的運作下，已出現越來越多的合作行為，為區域安全帶來正面意義。

Entering the 21st century, East Asia is poised to become the new strategic center of gravity in international politics. The development of East Asia's security situation is characterized by economic development and strategic competition, paving the way for various scenarios of regional security order construction. This study seeks to explain the development of East Asia's security order through three different pathways - ''hegemonic stability'', ''balance of power'', and ''multilateral institutions''. It concludes that with the exception of China, most regional actors have regarded the maintenance of status quo as the major goal of constructing regional order. East Asia has formed some regional security order to ease and manage regional tensions. On the issues of low politics, East Asia's multilateral security institution such as ASEAN has constructed international norms i.e. nonalignment, noninterference and common security to regulate regional actors' behaviors. As for the issues of high politics, they are mainly managed by US hegemony's diplomatic and military interference or, by multilateral consultations among regional great powers. The analysis of this study has shown that different pathways have been developed to construct East Asia's security order and these pathways are increasingly tempered by transnational cooperation.