複合三角結構與東亞權力平衡發展

Complex Triangle Structure and East Asia's Balance of Power

自冷戰時期以來，所謂三角關係結構一直是學者們用來觀察國際局勢發展的重要架構之一；一般認為，透過對於此種權力互動結構的觀察，將有助於研究者歸納、整理，甚至預測國家間關係的發展。不過，相較於過去單純從現實主義與權力政治角度來切入觀察的做法，自冷戰時期便逐漸醞釀起來的核子嚇阻與全球化浪潮這兩個新的變數，顯然是我們在觀察當前新三角結構發展時所必須同時注意的。對此，首先是核子嚇阻傾向於提升國家在進行外交決策時的理性程度，而全球化浪潮則在形塑互賴關係之餘，也推動了更多國際合作的可能性，因此這兩個變數可說既大大增強了三角結構的穩定性，也讓所謂新安全觀有機會與當前的國際結構接軌。在本文當中，我們便試圖以東亞地區為例來說明類似狀況並設法預測其未來可能發展。

Since the Cold War Era, the so-called ''triangle structure'' has been one of the crucial framework for scholars to observe the international relations, and it is really helpful for us to collect, formulate, and even preview the future about the relations among nations. However, because two new variables (nuclear deterrence and globalization) have been more and more important since the late period of Cold War Era, then we must change the traditional approach simultaneously from the pure realism and power politics. Nuclear deterrence should prompt the decision-makers more rational when they shared their foreign policy, and globalization did not only rise the level of interdependence, but offer a lot of opportunities for international cooperation. To sum up, they have strengthened the stability of the triangle structure apparently. In this paper, we will try to observe and realize the similar development I the East Asia.