我國三項重大軍備採購必要性之個案分析

A Case Analysis on Necessity of the Three Major Arms Procurements

本文檢視台灣是否需要採購「柴電潛艦」、「長程定翼反潛機」、「愛國者三型飛彈」等三項重大軍備。本文指出，柴電潛艦與反潛機並不適合對抗中共新一代潛艦威脅，且由於中共新一代潛艦的性能與台灣所處的地理形勢，更使得適合潛艦的遠距離封鎖反潛作戰根本不可行。再考慮到國際介入與兩岸間密切的經貿往來，通商破壞與海上封鎖亦非中共最可能的動武選擇，潛艦與反潛機都將無用武之地。而愛國者三型飛彈對台灣經濟的防護效果不彰，且目前價格高昂故無法建立有效的防禦。同時，愛國者三型飛彈只能攔截部分短程彈道飛彈，在心理上無法消除飛彈攻擊的威懾作用，且所針對的短程彈道飛彈，亦並非對台灣軍事目標最大的威脅。因此，台灣不應購買柴電潛艦與反潛機，愛國者三型飛彈至少也應符其價格性能達到更合理的程度再行採購。

This article analyses the necessity of the three major arms procurements: diesel-electric submarine, ASW (Anti Submarine Warfare) aircraft, and Patriot 3 missile. The article argues that, diesel-electric submarine and ASW aircraft are not suitable for countering the threat from those quieter submarines. In addition, because of the geography and quieter submarines, Taiwan can not conduct effective long rang blockade operations, which are the main missions for submarines. Further more, considering the international intervention and cross-strait economic interdependence, blockade is not the most possible option for the Mainland China. Thus it is meaningless to acquire diesel-electric submarine and ASW aircraft. At the same time, Patriot 3 missile currently is utterly expensive and not capable enough, can neither protect Taiwanese economy nor reduce the psychological shock from ballistic missile attacks, and ballistic missiles, which are the main targets of Patriot 3 missile, are also not the greatest missile threat from the Mainland China. In sum, the article argues that, Taiwan should not procure diesel-electric submarine and ASW aircraft, and should wait for a more capable missile defense system with lower costs.