良性全球化或世界末日：從資本與褔利角度研究

A Benign Globalization vs. a Doomsday Scenario: How to Make Globalization in a Capital and Welfare Perspective

本文所強調的是積極強化跨國經濟互動之經濟體的內部結構，而非全球化現象。且假設所有涉入的經濟體皆能夠追求充分就業的政策，則與新古典經濟學派期待一致的擁戴全球化模型就可達成，進而創造出經濟聚合的現象。然而，今日被邊緣化所形塑的經濟體已經在製造商品出口上具有競爭力。（例如所謂貨品，是由結構性的勞工剩餘所形塑）。至於伴隨著農業自足或剩餘而來的綠色革命，則能夠使上述的經濟體將既有的甚或於新的比較利益轉換為利用低於優先購買力的貨幣貶值手段的成本效益考量。如此一來，主要工業國家企圖限制勞工成本的結果，促使全球低消費趨勢更加惡化。故其解決方案是由一個全新的要素所構成，也就是從受邊緣化支配經濟體所發展出的製造出口業，且此經濟體以經濟與社會改革來達到吸收上述勞工剩餘的目標。筆者認為對受邊緣化支配的經濟體而言，目前逐漸發展出的文化認同運動，在其各項改革中，不失為適當的伙伴。

It is the internal structures of the economies actively intensifying trans border economic interactions that matter, and not globalization. If all participating economies were (able) to pursue full employment policies, a convoy model of globalisation that corresponds to the expectations of neo-classical economics would be achieved, thereby creating economic convergence. However today economies characterised by marginality (i.e. goods, that are characterized by a structural labour surplus) have become competitive in the export of manufactured goods. The green revolution accompanied by agricultural self-sufficiency or surpluses enables the said economies to transform pre-existing or even new comparative advantages, into cost-efficiency by means of devaluation below purchasing priority. Attempts to limit labour costs by leading industrialized countries further aggravate under-consumptionist tendencies at the global level. The alternative consists of complementing new, manufactured exports from marginality ridden economies with economic and social reforms aimed at the absorption of the said labour surplus. The emerging movements with cultural identities might be appropriate partners for such reforms in marginality ridden-economies.