東亞雁行結構的調整與變邊

Adjustment and Transition of East Asian ''Flying-geese'' Structure

最晚自1980年代以來，東亞地區的表現便成為學術與實務界所關切的對象之一。大體而言，他們的觀察焦點主要有二：其一是「奇蹟」的生成原因究竟為何，其次則是東亞的未來及其對世界各地的影響又將如何。其中，所謂「雁行」的相關概念可說是理解上述問題的重要途徑之一。在此，本文亦將依循此一邏輯結構，首先概述東亞奇蹟的發展，特別是它在最近有何變遷跡象，其次則透過對於雁行理論的介紹來說明此一系列發展的可能背景，不過，正如許多人所發現的，更重要的還是此種解釋方式所遭遇到的危機與諸多挑戰。因此，最後我們也試圖將目光聚焦在東亞當前所面臨的結構變遷上頭，一方面探討其可能的變數由來，再者也期盼能稍稍勾勒出該區域的未來走向。

As one of the most prominent region, East Asia is not only attention-getting, but attract many scholars to study why those countries could develop so successfully, and what principles they could offer to other countries and even to modify the Western development theory. Anyway, discussing about the ''flying-geese hypothesis'' is the main focus of it. Especially after the 1990s, because shocks of the Japan's ''Bubble Economy'' problem and the Financial Crisis of 1997, critiques about the hypothesis also emerging positively and negatively in the same time. In order to solve the problems above, in this paper, at first, I will trace the constructing process of the flying-geese theory, then observe further the development of interrelated policies, especially the role of government and its foreign investment strategy. Finally, I will focus on the change and adjustment of regional system, and hope to realize the future of East Asian development model.