媒體傳播效應與房市變化關聯性之驗證

An Examination of Media Effects on the Real Estate Market

媒介依賴理論指出社會變動越是劇烈與複雜，投資人對媒介依賴越深。台灣房市資訊透明度低，新聞媒體為參與者獲取資訊之重要管道，若從新聞媒體對房市之報導分析，應可了解房市之非基本面變化。本研究藉由文字探勘分析媒體對房市的態度編制房地產媒體情緒指數，並進一步分析其與房市變動的關係。實證發現媒體情緒指數，除對交易量與議價空間沒有顯著的關係外，對房價與流通天數都是呈現統計上的顯著，表示媒體對於房市的報導態度，會影響參與者之想法。而房市新聞報導頻率對於房價、成交量與流通天數也有顯著的相關性，代表新聞報導數量會推升參與者對於下一期房市之預期。此外，透過 copula 動態相關分析，發現房價、交易量與媒體情緒指數之動態相關性約在 2012 年時開始產生明顯變化。本研究確認媒體情緒在市場中扮演之角色，有助於政府在房市政策之擬定更加效率。

The media dependence theory suggests that the more complex the social changes, the deeper the investors rely on themedia. Because of the nontransparency of Taiwan's real estate market, the news media serves as a channel to obtaininformation. This study analyzed the effects of media on the real estate market by using text mining to compile real estatemedia sentiment index and analyzing its relationship with the real estate market. The media sentiment index had nosignificant relationship with price concession and transaction volume, but was significantly related to transaction priceand time on the market, indicating that the media’s attitude toward the real estate market affects investors. The frequencyof real estate news reports significantly correlated with the price, volume, and time on market. The results also indicatedthat the increase in news reports boosts investors' expectations. Through copula's dynamic correlation analysis, we foundthat the dynamic correlation between house prices, transaction volume, and media sentiment index began to change in2012. This study confirmed the role of media sentiment in the market, capturing the nonfundamental side of the real estatemarket. Our findings can help the government to make more efficient real estate market policies.