兩岸經貿政策是否符合Verdoorn法則之實證研究

Does the Cross-Strait Economic Policy of Taiwan Consist with Verdoorn Law? Evidence from an Empirical Study

台灣與中國大陸皆自1952年開始採用計畫經濟，但台灣採行自由經濟體制，而大陸在政治因素干擾下，直到1978年才加速改革開放的步調，致有快速的成長。自從Kaldor（1966）爰引Verdoorn（1949）之論點，提出製造業享有更明顯的動態規模經濟，經濟成長與生產力是否成正向變動，迄今仍受現代資本主義經濟學界矚目，因為此一法則之存在，隱含遞增規模報酬是製造業核心價值之所在，本研究即在於探討兩岸多年來的經濟競賽，是否對我國之產業發展產生符合Verdoorn法則之現象，並藉以透視當前兩岸經貿政策。採用的方法即將台灣與中國大陸產業生產資料以無母數邊界模型加以估計，驗證兩岸產業成長之原動力，然後再運用單根－－共整合－－因果檢定分別對Malmquist總要素生產力指數和隨機邊界模型估計之生產力指數加以測試，證實：二者在短期下呈現經濟成長會影響生產力，換言之，短期下Verdoorn法則存在兩岸貿易之間，長期則未定。

Both Taiwan and mainland China adopt economic planning since 1952. Taiwan puts western capitalist system into effect. On the contrary, mainland China was bothered by political disturbance before 1978. Since then, mainland China has higher economic growth rate than before.Adopting the concept of Verdoorn (1949), Kaldor (1966) argued that manufacturing growth drives more growth of the Gross Domestic Product, the positive relationship between growth rate and productivity trends might be at working modern capitalist economies. The existence of this phenomenal indicates that there is substantial evidence that increasing returns are the norm for the manufacturing industries. This study tries to explore whether or not the Verdoorn's Law suits for cross-strait manufacturing industries during the past 47 years.For this purpose, we estimated the Malmquist total factor productivity indices and productivity indices of stochastic frontier model for cross-strait industries. And then we adopted Granger causality test to verify whether or not that the positive relationship existence between growth rate and productivity. The results indicate that the Verdoorn's Law exists in cross-strait trade in the short run, however, it is uncertain in the long run.