運用地理資訊系統建立考古遺址預測模型的案例

Using GIS to Establish a Predictive Model for Archaeolgical Sites : A Case Study

「考古遺址預測模型」是研究自然和文化因素如何影響古人選擇其生活地點或聚落的方法之一。預測模型其實是一個假設，可以不斷被測試和驗證。遺址預測模型研究之基礎是聚落空間分佈和遺址資源域；在地理資訊系統支援下，預測模型有長足發展。古人選擇聚落或生活地點受制於自然與文化環境因素，如瞭解該等因素，則有利於考古學家研究哪裡是考古潛質地區。本文以香港高鐵工程為例，總結和討論考古調查如何應用遺址預測模型。以自然因素而言，選擇聚落或生活地點之重要決定因素有食物、淡水水源、、石材、地形、高程、土壤、風向和坐向等。在文化因素方面，則根據高鐵車廠內發現的明代聚落遺跡與深圳市西部大鵬半島明清村落進行對比研究，從而討論觀念系統如何影響人們選擇其聚落地點。

A predictive model for archaeological sites is a useful for the study of how natural and cultural factors affected the selection of living or settlement locations among ancient peoples. In fact, the model works as a testable and verifiable hypothesis. The predictive model has its roots in settlement spatial pattern and site catchment analysis and is greatly enhanced by GIS technology. Ancient people were closely tied to natural and cultural environments; by understanding these factors, archaeologists will be able to narrow their searches to potential archaeological sites. This paper demonstrates an application of GIS using an example of a site predictive model in an archaeological investigation for the Hong Kong high-speed railway construction project. In terms of natural environmental factors, aspects such as food, fresh water, raw materials for stone artifacts, landscape, elevation, soil, and wind are regarded as significant determinants for ancient people when choosing their living or settlement locations. For cultural factors, this paper is based on a comparison between existing Ming-Qing villages nearby and Ming Dynasty settlement remnants unearthed within the railway depot site to discuss how ideological systems affect settlement locations.