科學資優生和一般生的統計推理之比較：大數法則的運用

THE COMPARISONS OF STATISTICAL REASONING BETWEEN SCIENCE-GIFTED STUDENTS AND AVERAGE STUDENTS: THE APPLICATION OF THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS

科學資優生是目前國內資優教育中最受注目、關切的一群，其篩選方式是以智力測驗為主，輔以其他測驗，但教育學與對科學資優生的鑑定方式卻仍有爭議，目前稍聚的共識是運用多元化工具來鑑定資優生。因此在有別於傳統測驗之外，再找出科學資優生與一般生在哪些認知特質上有差異，則是進行多元化鑑定的第一步。本研究的主旨是探討科學資優生和一般生在解決與大數法則有關的問題時，科學資優生是否比一般生會運用統計推理的思考方式，表現出更適切、更好品質的大數法則推理。研究結果顯示當題目本身的隨機因子和問題空間明確時，科學資優生確實比一般生會運用統計推理，且其統計推理的品質亦較佳。在鼓勵以多元化的方式篩選科學資優生的前提下，本研究結果提供了一個可能的方向來輔助篩選的正確性。

Science-gifted students receive most attention in our educational system. The IQ tests together with some other tests are generally used to identify gifted students. However, there still exist some controversies over the identification issue. Although the consensus of this issue is to adopt multiple tools, the need to identify tasks on which cognitive processing differences between science-gifted students and average students can be observed remains. The main purpose of the present study is to investigate whether science-gifted students have better statistical reasoning abilities than average students when the law of large numbers can be applied to the problem solved. The results indicated more science-gifted students showed statistical reasoning than average students when the problem space was clear and the chance factors were salient. Furthermore, once the science-gifted students reasoned statistically, they more frequently used the law of large numbers than the average students. The implications of the results are further discussed.