應用物種分布模式評估氣候變遷對臺灣受威脅植物之影響

Assessing the influence of threatened plant species under climate change in Taiwan using species distribution model

氣候變遷可能促使物種地理空間分布發生改變，削減保護區保護受威脅植物的能力，進一步瞭解並掌握其影響程度，將有助於物種保育及保護區經營管理工作。本研究挑選39種受威脅之臺灣特有植物作為目標種，運用物種調查資料及最大熵模式（MaxEnt）模擬各物種現生及未來氣候變遷情境下之潛在分布，另整合所有模擬結果產生物種豐富度圖，評估臺灣現行法定保護區對受威脅植物的保護效能。研究結果顯示，未來氣候變遷情境下，有24種受威脅植物的適宜生育地可能縮減，而從全區的物種豐富度分布來看，熱區面積雖也大幅減少，惟位於保護區內的比例仍可維持，顯見保護區尚能發揮保育的功效。總結而言，本研究的架構下可瞭解氣候變遷對臺灣受威脅物種的影響，過程所建立之物種分布圖資，亦可提供未來生物多樣性保育策略制定之參考。

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of species, and diminish the capacity of protected areas to protect threatened plant species. Therefore, understanding the degree of impact will help promote the species conservation and management. We assembled a comprehensive occurrence database for 39 threatened plant species from collection of field and projected their potential distributions using a species distribution model (MaxEnt) in the context of current and future climate environment condition. Then, we combined all distributions into a single species richness layer to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas to protect threatened plant species. Our results showed that in terms of the distribution of each species, the suitable habitats of 24 species may be constrained under climate changes. With respect to the changes in overall species richness patterns, although the hotspot may be also obviously reduced, the proportion within protected areas can still be maintained. This suggests that the existing protected areas are effective at conserving threatened plant species. In conclusion, our method assesses the impact of climate change to endangered species, which can be applied to develop feasible biodiversity conservation strategy based on generated maps.