台北市房價與五都房價之相互影響分析

Interactive Analysis for the Housing Price of Taipei City and Five Major Cities

本研究以臺灣六都的房價為研究對象，利用動態面板向量自我迴歸分析，探討六都房價間，是否存在相互影響的連動關係。研究結果發現：（1）臺北市房價與五都房價存在共整合關係，長期來說，當臺北市房屋價格上升時，五都房價長期也會隨之上漲，區域房價間具備攀比效果。（2）利用面板資料誤差修正模型估計，當臺北市房價上漲1％時，平均而言，五都房價會上漲0.9152％。但是，利用個別誤差校正模型估算，當臺北市房價對於各都市的影響並不一致。（3）當臺北市與五都房價產生偏離時，由主要係由五都房價進行調整，但臺北市房價的調整並不顯著。

In this study, the housing prices of the six nationalities in Taiwan are taken as the research object, and the dynamic panel vector regression analysis is used to explore the interrelationship between the six housing prices. The results show that: (1) there is a cointegration relationship between housing prices in Taipei and the prices in the five cities. In the long run, when housing prices in Taipei rise, the prices of the five cities will rise. (2) Using the panel data error correction model, it is estimated that when the price of housing in Taipei rises by 1%, on average, the average price of the five cities will increase by 0.9152%. However, using individual error correction models, the impact of housing prices in Taipei on municipalities is not consistent. (3) When Taipei deviates from the housing prices of the five cities, it is adjusted mainly by the five housing prices, but the adjustment of housing prices in Taipei is not significant.