總體經濟指標與銀行放款量－－以中小企業為例

Macroeconomic Indicators and Bank Lending: Evidence from SEMs

本研究主要在探討總體經濟與銀行對中小企業放款量之間的關係。經以局部灰關聯分析（Localized GRA）方法實證得知，2008年金融危機之前總體經濟指標與銀行對中小企業放款量彼此之間的關聯程度，由強至弱依序為：匯率、利率、失業率、M2年增率、GDP年增率；2009年貣其關聯程度由強至弱依序為：利率、匯率、M2年增率、失業率、GDP年增率。顯示不論是金融危機之前或之後，重要總體經濟指標對銀行中小企業放款量的影響以匯率及利率二者最為密切。本文研究的結果除了可提供銀行經營者決策參考之外，同時也可補足理論上的不足。 The purpose of this study was to explore the interrelation degree of macroeconomic indicators and banking loan for SEMs. In this study, we use grey relation analysis to explore two groups of data before and after financial crisis of 2008. The result shows that the order is Exchange Rate, Annual Rate and Unemployment Rate et cetera before financial crisis of 2008. After 2008, the order is Annual Rate, Exchange Rate and Annual Growth Rate of M2, and so on. The above result of this study not only provides some insights to decision makers, but also supplies the deficiencies of theories.