兩岸貿易之全球價值鏈分析

The Global Value Chain Analysis of Cross-Strait Trade

隨著全球貿易快速發展趨勢，東亞產業供應鏈分工的深化，台灣在國際貿易參與上，中間財貿易所占比重正快速上升，此也導致傳統貿易統計發揮的功用逐漸失真。本文採用Wang et al. (2013)出口總額拆解的方法，並利用世界投入產出資料庫，釐析台灣對中國大陸貿易統計的真相。研究結果顯示，從附加價值貿易觀之，台灣對大陸的附加價值出口值較現行統計台灣對大陸出口總額縮減64.3％，台灣對大陸的附加價值出超亦大幅減少65.2％。若以貿易的附加價值觀察，台灣從對大陸出口總額中獲取的附加價值份額比重呈逐年遞減趨勢，由1995年的64.5％降至2011年的50.9％。 With the rapid development of global trade and deepening of the vertical division of labor along the global supply chain in East Asia, Taiwan's trade in intermediate goods increases rapidly. Accordingly indicators derived from traditional trade statistics were distorted. This paper adopts the decomposition methodology of Wang et al. (2013) and uses World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to derive various components from across strait trade. Indicators on trade in value added and value added in trade are elaborated and calculated. Empirical results demonstrate clearly that Taiwan's export values to Mainland China shrink by 64.3% when bilateral trades are measured in value-added terms. Furthermore, Taiwan's trade surplus towards Mainland China also decreases by 65.2% under this measure. From the viewpoint of value added in trade, the share of value added in Taiwan's gross exports to Mainland China decreased to 50.9% in 2011 from 64.5% in 1995, while the components of foreign value added and double counted terms kept growing in recent years.