從歐中由親轉疏的變遷看台歐關係的發展

The Prospects of Taiwan-EU Relations in view of the Estranged EU-China Relations

歐盟與中國的長程戰略始於1995。中國在2004年對歐盟的貿易首度超越其對日本或美國。2005起，中國快速崛起而伴隨著歐盟經濟的衰退後，歐中關係也在質變，由甜轉酸；2007年後歐盟遭逢金融與經濟的危機之襲擊，陷入經濟停滯的泥淖。在中國崛起的大背景下，歐盟明顯向美國傾斜。不過，歐中彼此都是大國，威脅與機會雜陳交錯；在大國外交的利害考量下，即便有挫折，雙方也會設法尋求改善與修補。台灣是小國，又脫離不了中國的壓力，也脫離不了歐中既有的戰略框架的限定，今後如何善用歐盟當下經貿衰退、內部對中國在機會與風險、合作與矛盾的不一致，尋求台灣最佳介入的策略點。 The EU and China have started their long-range strategic engagement ever since 1995. In 2004, China's trade with the EU surpassed that of Japan or the United States for the first time. Since 2005, following the rapid rise of China and the economic recession of the European Union, the EU-China relationship has also undergone a qualitative change, turning from sweet to sour. After the EU’s financial and economic crisis in 2007, it fell into a muddy economy. Against the background China rising, the EU has obviously leaned toward the US. However, in view of EU-China relations, threats and opportunities are mixed; under the consideration of the interests involved, even if there are setbacks, both parties will seek to improve or repair them. Taiwan, as a small state, cannot get rid of pressure from China as well as the existing EU-China strategic framework. Taiwan has to learn how to make good use of opportunities and evade risks innate in EU-China relations, and thus developing a best strategy to cope with them.