以數量分析方法探討台灣薪資停滯成因

A QUANTITATIVE EXPLORATION OF THE CAUSES OF TAIWAN'S WAGE STAGNATION

在2000－2012年間，台灣的薪資呈現停滯的狀態，是過去六十多年來未見的現象。讓人費解的是，這段期間平均勞動生產力的成長率仍維持在2.5％以上，但實質薪資幾乎沒有成長。為此，本篇論文採用簡單的數學計算和新古典學派衡量景氣循環成因的方法即景氣循環拆解方程式（business cycle accounting），來探討為何平均勞動生產力與實質薪資的成長率差異顯著，並進一步了解薪資的成長率在這段期間較過去二十年低的原因。結果顯示，成長率約80％的差異是因為平均勞動生產力和實質薪資在計算時採用不同的平減指數。另外，2000－2012年間薪資的成長率較1980－2000年間低有兩個原因：（1）2000年初起總要素生產力的成長趨緩以及2000年中葉起資本市場存在均衡下既有耗損的擴大，造成邊際勞動生產力的成長率下降；（2）工資高於邊際勞動生產力的溢額變小，因而使薪資給付的成長趨緩。這些因素導致我們所觀察到的薪資停滯。

Wage stagnation between 2000-2012 is unprecedented in Taiwan's development in the past 60 years. This phenomenon is puzzling, as the growth rate of average labor productivity remains above 2.5%, while there is almost no growth in real wages. In this paper, a simple arithmetic computation and a neoclassical measuring approach - business cycle wedge methodology - are adopted to explore the possible causes of such a growth difference in average labor productivity and real wages. Moreover, we address why wages grow much more slowly than in the previous twenty years. It turns out that the use of different deflators for deflating average labor productivity (i.e., real gross domestic product per worker) and real wages accounts for about 80% of the gap. Furthermore, there are two reasons for why the wages during 2000-2012 grew more slowly than the preceding period, i.e., 1980-2000: (1) the fall in total factor productivity in the early 2000s and then the increasing capital market friction caused the growth rate of the marginal product of labor to fall; (2) the fall of the markup of wages paid over the marginal product of labor caused the slow growth in wages paid. All the above factors lead to the observed wage stagnation.