以階層線性模式探討TOD規劃效益對土地開發之影響

Hierarchical Linear Models to Investigate the Effects of Tod Planning Effective Land Development

近年來，都市化現象，不僅使都會區人口密度不斷攀升，更隨著私人運具的普遍使用，而造成都市蔓延等現象，進而導致全球暖化、氣候異常與能源短缺等問題日益嚴重，且道路建設終究無法無限擴張。因此，各國將「大眾運輸導向發展（TOD）」視為因應策略，城市型大眾運輸系統除了滿足民眾機動性與可及性需求外，其所能產生的諸多效益，更使TOD成為發展潮流。但是，TOD發展至今，亦逐漸發現其諸多效益難以實現，本研究歸納出四項問題：（一）應歸責於TOD被誤解；（二）目前研究僅實證出TOD對大眾運輸旅次有正面效益，但對其餘相關效益仍缺乏實證研究；（三）在效益尚未釐清之前，即爰用稅金增額融通機制（TIF），並將車站周邊的整體發展效益全部歸於TOD的成效且進一步將其貨幣化；（四）財務挹注之費用，隨著興建成本的增加而日益高升。綜整上述現象，即導致TOD發展效益被過度預期與高漲，未來勢必成為都市發展的一大隱憂。緣此，本研究著重於探討TOD規劃關鍵脈絡與其發展效益，首先以文獻回顧方式歸納出代表變數，並應用階層線性模型（HLM），將其分為行政區範圍（總體階層）與TOD區範圍（個體階層），以此探討台北都會區TOD規劃效益與土地開發之關係，以供捷運建設TIF計畫在貢獻比例設計與位研提規劃策略時之參考。 In recent years, the phenomenon of urbanization, population density in urban areas not only continue to rise, even with the widespread use of private vehicles, and other phenomena caused by urban sprawl, leading to global warming, energy shortages, climate anomalies and growing problem, and After all, road construction can’t expand indefinitely. Therefore, countries will “guide the development of public transportation (TOD)” depending on the response strategy, city-based mass transit system apart to satisfy the public demand for mobility and accessibility, the many benefits it can generate, the more so TOD become the development trend. However, TOD development so far, has gradually found its many benefits is difficult to achieve, the study concludes that the four questions: (a) shall be attributable misunderstood in TOD; (b) Currently, only empirical research on the public transport trips TOD positive benefits, but the rest is still a lack of empirical research related benefits; (c) has not been clarified before the benefits that tax increment financing mechanism used (TIF), the overall development effectiveness and all around the station attributed to the effectiveness of TOD and further its monetization; (d) Financial inject fee, with the increase in construction costs and increasingly soaring. Comprehensive whole phenomenon that led to the development of effective TOD is excessive expectations and rising, the future is bound to become a major worry of urban development. Edge, this study focuses on exploring the context of their development TOD planning key benefits, the first way to summarize the literature review on behalf of the variables, and applied hierarchical linear model (HLM), will be divided into administrative scope and TOD zone range, in order to explore the relationship between benefits and the price of land in Taipei metropolitan area TOD plan and develop their strategies based on the analysis results for the MRT construction TIF proportional contribution plan reference in the design and planning strategies mention bit of research.