| 中文摘要 |
收益法係將不動產未來所能產生之期待收益，以適當的資本化率折算為現在價值，以推得勘估標的價值的方法。依不動產估價技術規則的規定，收益資本化率的求取，得以市場萃取法加以比較、決定之；惟於實務作業中，如何比較、調整、決定之？由於缺乏相關研究，對此專業知識之瞭解有限，因此於不動產估價師的作業中，其決定之過程缺乏理論支持，較不具說服力。近年來，隨著都市更新的興起，不動產價格隨時間經過呈現先減後增的逆折舊現象；於租金收益隨時間經過而遞減折舊下，資本化率隨時間經過而改變之動態變動情形，更需加以深入探討。本文於不動產價值包含使用價值與再開發價值之理論模型下，以台北市房地產交易價格與租賃租金資料進行複迴歸分析，分別建立不動產租金、價格實證模型，作為推估不動產租金、價值及計算收益資本化率之基礎。其後，以收益資本化率與屋齡建立迴歸關係，探討資本化率的動態變動情形。依實證結果顯示，收益資本化率隨屋齡遞移呈先增後減的武藏曲線路徑變動，且於不同地區、不同景氣階段有所差異。於低價地區、經濟發展相對較低時期，收益資本化率的數值水準較高、且屋齡效果變動相對明顯；另於景氣波動時期、在穩定度相對較低的地區，其變動情形與當時之時空環境變化相關，致使收益資本化率的變動情形更加複雜。此深入之分析，可矯正以往租價比固定的迷思。
Market extraction method is the most important method to catch capitalization rate in income approach. In practice, how do we justly compare and adjust the capitalization rate? Due to the lack of relevant researches, the process of determining the capitalization rate could not be well supported. Recent rise of urban renewal cause real estate value to display inverse pattern of 'increase after a decrease over time'. With the decrease in rent income and depreciation inversion, changes in capitalization rate needs to be further analyzed. This paper forms real estate rental and pricing model to estimate capitalization rate in Taipei City. Then we adopt the regression model with capitalization rate and age of property to compare and analyze the effect by different area and prosperity on the dynamic movement of capitalization rate. According to our result, capitalization rate would perform an inverted U -curve over time that varies with location and economic prosperity. In areas with lower price or at lower prosperity periods, age effect on capitalization rate is higher and the fluctuation is relatively apparent. During the undulated periods of economy, for areas with less price stability, age effect on capitalization rate and their fluctuation is more complicated and would depend on the environment of that specific space and time. Our analysis provides evidence of unstable capitalization rate over the useful life of property. |
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