分區管制對台北都會區土地使用變遷的影響：一電腦模擬

Effects of Zoning on the Land-use Change in the Taipei Metropolitan Area: A Computer Simulation

本研究運用MIT所設計研發的StarLogo模擬軟體進行土地使用變遷研究之設計，在模擬規則中以經濟財產權值指標所建立之開發機率，配合代表土地使用分區影響方式的容許機率作為土地使用變遷的準則，最後以基因演算法一百回所獲得的參數來進行本研究之土地使用模擬模型之分析。從本研究之模擬結果可獲得幾個重要結論：（1）利用本研究所建立之基因演算法而獲得之相關參數配合土地使用轉換規則，確實可以模擬出某些都市土地使用分布的型態樣貌；（2）模擬範圍內之土地使用分區確實會對土地使用的產生與分布造成影響，但影響的對象則為限制工業土地使用數量的發展與影響商業土地使用的碎形樣貌及（3）從本研究之模擬圖層與單因子多變量分析進行比較後可推論，土地使用分區對於土地使用分布的影響並非影響其分布的碎形樣貌，而是決定了其分布的位置。 This research employed the StarLogo software designed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology to analyze land use change. It assessed the probability of development based on economic property right indices and the probability of possible land uses allowed in the zoning system embedded in the simulation rules. The parameters generated from the two analyses are then used to calibrate the simulation model. There are three important results from this research: (1) using the parameters gained from the genetic algorithm method, the model could indeed simulate partially the pattern of land uses for the Taipei metropolitan area; (2) the zoning system in the simulated area would influence the appearance and the pattern of land uses. It would limit the development of the industrial land-use and affect the fractal pattern of commercial landuse; and (3) after comparing the spatial patterns of simulation results and conducting the one-way ANOVA analysis, it can be concluded that the effects of the zoning are not on the fractal pattern of land uses, but on specific location.