不同類型遷移者之住宅區位與權屬選擇的實證估計－－以台北都會區遷入者為例

The Joint Estimation of Migration Types, Housing Location and Housing Tenure Choice- The Case of Taipei Metropolitan Area Immigrants

本研究目的在探討遷移者之住宅區位與權屬的聯合選擇，將過去研究所忽略的遷移類型因素納入考量。在方法上，本研究利用主計處91年「國內遷徙調查」之原始資料，以台北都會區之遷入者為研究對象，將這些遷移者依其遷移原因分成工作遷移者、居住遷移者及其他三種類型，以比較其住宅區位與權屬選擇之差異性。為能考量遷移者之住宅區位與權屬選擇之共同決策特性，本研究採用間斷選擇模型中之多項Logit及巢式Logit模型建立三種可能的決策模式分別估計，再利用四種統計指標選取較佳之決策模式，作為分析相關解釋變數效果之基礎。主要研究結果發現，不同類型遷移者對住宅區位與權屬之聯合選擇有所差異，其中工作遷移者選擇在台北縣租屋的可能性較台北市擁屋或台北縣擁屋要高，然而這類遷移者會在台北市租屋或台北縣租屋的選擇則無明顯差異，本研究認為應是受到工作或就學地點的影響，亦即遷移者可能會依據其工作或就學地點在台北市或台北縣，而儘量選擇在靠近該地點的地區租屋；因住宅相關因素而遷移者方面，整體而言，對住宅權屬選擇的影響較為顯著，亦即這類遷移者選擇擁屋的可能性較高，其中又以選擇在台北縣擁屋的可能性最高。在其他解釋變數方面，以遷移者之恆常所得、前次住宅權屬及實質居住成本的影響較為顯著，房間數則無影響。 This paper estimates empirically the joint decisions of location and housing tenure choice for Taipei Metropolitan immigrants. The immigrants were selected from the “Internal Migration Survey in Taiwan Area” which was conducted by Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics in 2002.Data were divided into job movers and residential movers for measuring different behaviors in location and housing tenure choice. A multinomial logit and two types of nested logit model structures were specified for analyzing the joint nature of location and housing tenure. The main findings are as follows: First, job movers are more likely to rent in Taipei County than to own in Taipei City and Taipei County. However there is no difference between the choices of Taipei City and Taipei County. Residential movers are more likely to own in Taipei County. Second, permanent income, previous ownership types, and physical housing costs are also found to have significant influences on the joint choice of location and housing tenure.