房價結構性改變影響因素分析－－以台北市、台北縣房價為例

An Analysis of Structural Changes in Housing Prices: Cases of Taipei City and Taipei County

以往文獻雖證實國內房價發生多次結構性改變，但卻未深入分析造成房價結構性改變之原因，本文中運用誤差修正模型與結構性改變虛擬變數來建構房價模型，並參考Wang（2000）所運用的衝擊反應分析來探討台北市與台北縣房價發生結構性改變之可能原因。實證結果顯示，台北市房價與貨幣供給、股價指數、以及建照面積存在一種共積關係，台北縣房價則與上述變數存在三種共積關係，不論台北市或台北縣，加入結構性改變的房價模型確實比未考量結構性改變的模型解釋力佳。此外，股價是導致房價結構性改變的最直接因素，貨幣供給額則為間接因素，相較於前兩項因素而言，建照面積對房價結構性改變影響則較不顯著。 Although past studies showed that housing prices in Taiwan had experienced several structural changes, there was no detailed analysis of why these changes occurred. In this paper, we use the Error Correction Model (ECM) to construct a housing price model. We also employ impulse response analysis postulated by Wang (2000) to explain structural changes of housing prices in both Taipei City and Taipei County. Empirical results revealed that housing prices in both cities correlate with money supply, stock market index and the allowed floor areas specified by the building permit. In both cases, the housing price model that incorporates the three variables can better explain structure changes than do models that ignore these factors. Besides, while the performance of stock market has direct impacts on the structural changes of housing prices, money supply affects prices indirectly. The influence of the building permit is not significant.