經濟結構轉變後之地價變動分析

A Dynamics Analysis of Land Price after Economic Structural Transform in Taiwan

1985年以前，在政府政策控制下，台幣對美元匯率一直維持在一美元兌換40元台幣左右。自1987年外匯管制放寬後，台幣對美元大幅升值，國際套匯熱錢源源流入台灣，造成國內游資泛濫。1987年至1988年間，國內貨幣的成長速度幾乎高達25%以上，同時間，消費者物價指數卻相當地平穩，幾乎都在2%以內，地價的漲幅卻高達112%以上；此種現象，正說明國內經濟結構有別於以往。當經濟結構轉變，對於土地價格將產生何種影響，是本文希望研究的課題。本研究運用單根檢定ADF、共整合及誤差修正模式等研究方法，分析過去十幾年來地價的變化，藉以釐清地價與總體經濟變數間之互動關係，並進一步澄清地價的長短期動態調整模式，希望研究結果能夠解釋台灣經濟結構轉變過程中，不動產市場的重要元素：土地，其價格變動對於總體經濟變數之影響程度。 Land prices in large Taiwanese cities more than tripled in two years (1987-1988). Owing to high land prices, the proportion of land prices to housing prices is higher than before, especially in Taipei. Land Resource is becoming to the major inputs in real estate market. However, there is no literature studying the effect of land price and macro-economy, on empirical study or otherwise. The main reason for this dearth of research is the lack of transaction data of land prices. In order to estimate between land prices and other economic factors, this paper first will use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root technique and Johansen's cointegration test procedures to study the properties of quarterly time series, i.e., land prices, GNP, foreign exchange rate, interest rate, money supply and consumer's price index in Taipei from 1986 to 2000. Then based on the results of unit root tests and cointegration tests, we perform the tests in error correction models (ECM). The correlation between land price and other factors are a great concern to Taiwan land policy makers. We believe the change of land prices will deeply effect the economic growth.