經濟發展對中國大陸農業利潤影響之計量分析

The effects of economic growth on agricultural profit: a case study on Mainland china

中國大陸自1978年經濟改革開放以來，由於過去受到長期農工產業投資的不均衡，與農產品低價管制政策之影響，使得中國大陸農村經濟在經濟發展過程中，農業生產結構與農業利潤發生了極大的轉變。其主要原因有以下三點：第一、由於經濟發展之結果，使得農民之非農業所得與兼業所得增加。非農業工作機會的增加，使得農村之勞動力移轉至非農業部門，有限的勞動力將使農業生產結構由多使用勞動力的種植業，轉變為可使用機械力與資本密集的畜產業及養殖業。第二、在經濟發展過程中由於資源有限，受到比較利益之影響，移往非農業部門造成農業部門生產要素供給下降的現象，造成農業生產投入要素價格上漲，導致農民收益下降，進而使農民與非農民間的收入差距擴大。第三、經濟發展對農業部門會產生外部效果，若外部效果是正的，我們稱之為外部利益；若外部效果是負的，我們稱之為外部成本。本研究之目的，即要建立一計量模型，藉以分析中國大陸經濟發展對農業利潤之影響，並同時比較中國大陸區域農業受到經濟發展不同程度之影響大小，以供兩岸農業交流「區位選擇」之前期作業決策參考。由本研究結果中可得出五點結論：（1）絕對有利農業發展的有：東部地區的山東省而產業優勢是林產品與水產養殖品；中部地區的湖北省較適合發展畜產品；西部地區的四川省則適宜生產糧食作物。（2）東部地區的江蘇省與福建省農業與非農業已由互競轉為互補關係，經濟發展對農業部門而言，是處於相對有利之階段。（3）中西部各縣農業與非農業部門是處於互補關係，換言之，經濟發展對中國大陸中西部農業之發展有助益。（4）安徽省經濟發展對農業利潤之總效果趨近於0，此一結果證實了邊際報酬遞減之假設。（5）浙江省其農業總效果皆為負值，表示農業部門與非農業部門處於互競關係。 Due to rapid development of the industrial and commercial sector, Mainland China agricultural sector has experienced substantial changes in its production structure and profitability. An immediate impact of land reform was constrained expansion in farm size. A declining role for the small farm economy in national economy development, shifting from the provision of basic resources to foster industrial development to a dependence on non-farm income in order to sustain agricultural growth. During 1980's-1990's period, China's agriculture found itself in great trouble. To meet the challenge economic conditions, agricultural policy has to be adjusted in a timely fashion in order to prevent the small farm economy from collapsing. The purpose of this study is to measure the effect of economic growth on changes in Mainland China. In order to fulfill the -objective of this research, a Cobb-Douglas indirect profit function with a varying parameter is used to identify the factors that affect the changes in agricultural profit on Mainland China. The following hypotheses will be tested: 1. The effect of economic growth on agricultural profit is different for different areas on China. 2. The effect of economic growth on agricultural profit has a negative effect on agricultural profit through input price elasticities. The empirical results of Mainland China are as follows: 1. The increasing use of inputs which are biased toward forestry and fishery production in Shan-Tung, livestock production in Wu-Bei and crops production in Si-Chuan. 2. The total effect of economic growth on Gan-Sn and Fu-Chien is negative at first but then becomes positive. This implies that the growth of agricultural industries and the growth of non-agricultural industries are complementary. 3. The total effect of economic growth on middle provinces and western provinces is positive but at a decreasing rate. This implies that the growth of agricultural industries and the growth of non-agricultural industries are complementary. 4. The total effect of economic growth on An-Huei province approaches zero. These empirical results support the hypothesis of diminishing marginal returns and that the total effect of economic growth will decrease as income increases.

Due to rapid development of the industrial and commercial sector, Mainland China agricultural sector has experienced substantial changes in its production structure and profitability. An immediate impact of land reform was constrained expansion in farm size. A declining role for the small farm economy in national economy development, shifting from the provision of basic resources to foster industrial development to a dependence on non-farm income in order to sustain agricultural growth. During 1980's-1990's period, China's agriculture found itself in great trouble. To meet the challenge economic conditions, agricultural policy has to be adjusted in a timely fashion in order to prevent the small farm economy from collapsing. The purpose of this study is to measure the effect of economic growth on changes in Mainland China. In order to fulfill the -objective of this research, a Cobb-Douglas indirect profit function with a varying parameter is used to identify the factors that affect the changes in agricultural profit on Mainland China. The following hypotheses will be tested: 1. The effect of economic growth on agricultural profit is different for different areas on China. 2. The effect of economic growth on agricultural profit has a negative effect on agricultural profit through input price elasticities. The empirical results of Mainland China are as follows: 1. The increasing use of inputs which are biased toward forestry and fishery production in Shan-Tung, livestock production in Wu-Bei and crops production in Si-Chuan. 2. The total effect of economic growth on Gan-Sn and Fu-Chien is negative at first but then becomes positive. This implies that the growth of agricultural industries and the growth of non-agricultural industries are complementary. 3. The total effect of economic growth on middle provinces and western provinces is positive but at a decreasing rate. This implies that the growth of agricultural industries and the growth of non-agricultural industries are complementary. 4. The total effect of economic growth on An-Huei province approaches zero. These empirical results support the hypothesis of diminishing marginal returns and that the total effect of economic growth will decrease as income increases.