氣候變遷情境下臺灣四種單食性蝴蝶之時空分布模擬

Modelling spatial and temporal distribution of four monophagous butterfl y species under climate change scenarios in Taiwan

在氣候變遷的影響下，物種會自主性調整其適存環境，而蝴蝶對環境敏感，氣候改變勢必迫使改變其空間分布。本研究選擇無尾白紋鳳蝶（Papilio castor formosanus）、白灰蝶（Neopithecops zalmora）、黃蛺蝶（Polygonia c-aureum lunulata）及波蛺蝶（Ariadne ariadne pallidior）等臺灣4種單食性蝴蝶及其寄主植物做為目標種，運用物種調查資料及最大熵（Maxent模式）模擬各蝶種現生及未來氣候變遷情境下（2061~2080）之空間分布，另考慮生物相互作用，採模糊邏輯運算整合各蝶種及其寄主植物之空間分布機率，以確認各蝶種之空間分布及受氣候變遷的影響程度。研究結果顯示，在氣候變遷情境下，以全臺而言，各蝶種空間分布朝向高緯度或高海拔方向推移，不致滅絕；然以氣候區來看，黃蛺蝶未來在熱帶氣候區遭受區域滅絕的可能性相對較高。由本研究的架構上，可找出易受氣候變遷影響或須優先納入保護之受威脅物種，以提供未來制訂物種保育策略與經營管理工作之參考。 Species currently track suitable environment conditions under ongoing climate change. Climate change forces to shift in pattern of butterfly natural distribution because of its sensitivity to environment. We therefore used the maximum entropy (Maxent model) to project species distribution of four monophagous butterfl y species and their host plant species from presence-only data for the Papilio castor formosanus, Neopithecops zalmora, Polygonia c-aureum lunulata and Ariadne ariadne pallidior under present and future climate change scenarios (2061~2080) in Taiwan. To obtain more accurate distribution of butterfl y species, the biotic interactions are taken into consideration, we utilized the fuzzy logic to combine predictions of butterfl y and plant. The results showed four butterfl y species will not be extinct that the spatial distribution is expected to shift towards more northern or higher locaticns in term of full scale, but the possibility of regional extinction for Polygonia c-aureum lunulata is relatively high in future in the case of tropical region. Our method is a methodology that can be found vulnerable species by climate change or protected priority species requiring planning for future protection and management