台灣農業投資變動對經濟影響分析－－靜態及動態產業關聯分析

A Study of Economic Impact Effects of Agricultural Investment on Taiwan: Static and Dynamic Input-Output Analysis

為增加農業經營效率與競爭優勢，提高農業生產力，增加農業有效投資，使得農業生產技術獲得提升實屬重要。因此，為瞭解國內目前農業投資現況，首先必須對於農業投資相關統計資料進行分析與釐清。其次，應瞭解農業投資對農業及整體經濟之直接及間接影響。由於投資具有時間遞延效果，因此，本文同時利用農委會查編的農業固定資本形成資料，以及主計處編佈之2006年52部門台灣產業關聯表，分別透過靜態及動態投入產出分析方法，計算農業投資變動之產業關聯效果，並且進行分析。本文以靜態投入產出模型研究結果發現，2000至2009年農業投資對整體經濟生產效果分別增加755至1,268億元，合計增加9,874億元，各年農業投資之乘數效果約2.15，平均相對於當年農業生產總額之22%，各年農業投資對所得（GDP）效果約為產出效果之三成一。此外，限於目前主計處最新公佈之產業關聯表為2006年年份表，是以本文再以動態投入產出模型研究結果發現，自2006年當年農業投資419.6億元後，在2006至2010年合計總產出效果為1,246.2億元，總乘數為2.97倍，高於由靜態投入產出模型所計算的2.15倍乘數效果。其中對各年產出效果除2006年較低外，2007年產出效果升高，主因為通常投資行為具有時間落後（time lag）現象，因此，對當年產出的效果稍低，較大的產出效果是在2007年產生，惟自2008年起投資對產出的效果已呈逐年遞減。 To increase operational efficiency and competitive advantage of agriculture, increase agricultural productivity, increase investment in agriculture and effective, making agricultural production technology it is important to get promoted. Therefore, in order to understand the status of current domestic investment in agriculture, we must first investment in agricultural statistics for the analysis and clarification. Second, we should understand the agricultural investment on agriculture and the overall economy of direct and indirect effects. As investment in a time lag effect, therefore, while taking advantage of this survey and compilation of COA agricultural fixed capital formation data, and compiled DGBAS 2006 Taiwan's Inout-Output tables through the static and dynamic Input-Output analysis to calculate changes in agricultural investment industry linkage effects. In this paper, the static Input-Output Model results show that from 2000 to 2009 agricultural investment effect on the overall economic production increased NT$7.55 to NT$12.68 billion, respectively, for a total increase of NT$98.74 billion, the multiplier effect of investment in agriculture of about 2.15, the average relative year 22% of the total agricultural production, agricultural investment each year on income (GDP) output results of the effect is about three into one. In addition, just for the moment, the latest government announcement, Input-Output tables for the year 2006, then this is the dynamic Input-Output Model results show that, since the year 2006, NT$4.19 billion investment in agriculture after the combined total from 2006 to 2010 output results for the NT$12.46 billion, the total multiplier is 2.97 times higher than the static calculation of Input-Output Model multiplier effect of 2.15 times. One effect of the annual output less than 2006, the 2007 increase in annual output effects, the main reason is usually a time lag behind investment behavior (time lag) and, therefore, the effect of the year slightly lower output, higher output results generated in 2007, but since 2008 has shown the effect of investment on output reducing.

To increase operational efficiency and competitive advantage of agriculture, increase agricultural productivity, increase investment in agriculture and effective, making agricultural production technology it is important to get promoted. Therefore, in order to understand the status of current domestic investment in agriculture, we must first investment in agricultural statistics for the analysis and clarification. Second, we should understand the agricultural investment on agriculture and the overall economy of direct and indirect effects. As investment in a time lag effect, therefore, while taking advantage of this survey and compilation of COA agricultural fixed capital formation data, and compiled DGBAS 2006 Taiwan's Inout-Output tables through the static and dynamic Input-Output analysis to calculate changes in agricultural investment industry linkage effects. In this paper, the static Input-Output Model results show that from 2000 to 2009 agricultural investment effect on the overall economic production increased NT$7.55 to NT$12.68 billion, respectively, for a total increase of NT$98.74 billion, the multiplier effect of investment in agriculture of about 2.15, the average relative year 22% of the total agricultural production, agricultural investment each year on income (GDP) output results of the effect is about three into one. In addition, just for the moment, the latest government announcement, Input-Output tables for the year 2006, then this is the dynamic Input-Output Model results show that, since the year 2006, NT$4.19 billion investment in agriculture after the combined total from 2006 to 2010 output results for the NT$12.46 billion, the total multiplier is 2.97 times higher than the static calculation of Input-Output Model multiplier effect of 2.15 times. One effect of the annual output less than 2006, the 2007 increase in annual output effects, the main reason is usually a time lag behind investment behavior (time lag) and, therefore, the effect of the year slightly lower output, higher output results generated in 2007, but since 2008 has shown the effect of investment on output reducing.