台灣種植基改木瓜的潛在經濟效益評估

The Potential Economic Benefit of Adopting GM Papaya in Taiwan

近年台灣木瓜產業受到輪點病毒的侵襲危害木瓜的生產，然而，隨著基因工程技術快速的發展，造就了抗輪點病毒的基因改造木瓜問市，雖然可有效解決病毒危害的困擾，但基因改造作物可能產生的相關風險，亦有可能影響消費者的購買意願。鑑此，本研究以台灣木瓜產業為例，衡量基改木瓜的潛在經濟效益，並修正Falck-Zepeda et al. （2000a） 的經濟剩餘模型（economic surplus model），根據消費者接受程度的不同，模擬台灣種植基因改造木瓜後三種可能發生之情形，以測量消費者與生產者福利效果之變動，並藉之評估台灣種植基因改造木瓜的可行性。基因改造木瓜的潛在經濟效益分析之實證結果顯示，對消費者而言，若基因改造木瓜可銷往國外市場，則國內消費者福利沒有改變；若基因改造木瓜遭受國外市場的封鎖，則國內消費者福利將會大幅提升，此外，若國內消費者對基改木瓜之接受程度越低，則其所增加之福利亦隨之降低。對生產者而言，若基因改造木瓜可銷往國外市場，則生產者可由國外市場獲得部分經濟利益；若基因改造木瓜遭受國外市場的封鎖，則生產者福利將會大量的損失，此外，若國內消費者對基改木瓜之接受程度越低，則其所損失之福利亦隨之增加。對種苗商而言，其藉由種苗價差可獲得小部分的經濟效益，此外，若台灣基因改造木瓜之採用率增加將有助於其福利的提升。 In Taiwan, papaya ring spot virus (PRVS) has affected the papaya industry and cause great damage to papaya production in recent years. With the development of Genetically Modified (GM) technology, the anti-ring spot virus papaya become available in the market. The GM technology can solve the problem of ring spot virus effectively, however, the potential health risk of GM crops may influence the consumer's willing to consume. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analysis the economic benefit of adopting GM papaya, we simulate three kinds of possible situations by revising Falck-Zepeda, et al. (2000a) economic surplus model and to measure the welfare changes of consumers and producers base on the acceptance of consumer GM papaya. The economic benefit analysis of adopting GM papaya shows that if the GM papaya can be exported to abroad markets, the domestic consumer benefits will not change, and if the GM papaya is blocked by abroad markets, result in the domestic retail price down, consumer benefits will raise a lot. Besides, the lower of domestic consumers' acceptance to GM papaya, the lower of the consumer benefits have. On the other hand, if GM papaya can be exported to abroad markets, the producer can gain some economic benefits from abroad markets, but if GM papaya is blocked by abroad markets, the producer will gain a lot of loss. Furthermore, the lower of the domestic consumers' acceptance to GM papaya, the higher of producers' benefits loss. To breeders, they can obtain small part of the economic benefits by price premium of the GM papaya seed.

In Taiwan, papaya ring spot virus (PRVS) has affected the papaya industry and cause great damage to papaya production in recent years. With the development of Genetically Modified (GM) technology, the anti-ring spot virus papaya become available in the market. The GM technology can solve the problem of ring spot virus effectively, however, the potential health risk of GM crops may influence the consumer's willing to consume. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analysis the economic benefit of adopting GM papaya, we simulate three kinds of possible situations by revising Falck-Zepeda, et al. (2000a) economic surplus model and to measure the welfare changes of consumers and producers base on the acceptance of consumer GM papaya. The economic benefit analysis of adopting GM papaya shows that if the GM papaya can be exported to abroad markets, the domestic consumer benefits will not change, and if the GM papaya is blocked by abroad markets, result in the domestic retail price down, consumer benefits will raise a lot. Besides, the lower of domestic consumers' acceptance to GM papaya, the lower of the consumer benefits have. On the other hand, if GM papaya can be exported to abroad markets, the producer can gain some economic benefits from abroad markets, but if GM papaya is blocked by abroad markets, the producer will gain a lot of loss. Furthermore, the lower of the domestic consumers' acceptance to GM papaya, the higher of producers' benefits loss. To breeders, they can obtain small part of the economic benefits by price premium of the GM papaya seed.