我國全面開放畜禽產品市場對國內畜禽產業衝擊評估與影響分析

Impact Evaluation on Domestic Livestock and Poultry Industry after Free Trade

台灣於2002年加入世界貿易組織（WTO）後，逐年調降肉品進口關稅，將直接衝擊到國內肉品市場，對台灣畜禽產業將面臨重大的挑戰。本研究以國內畜禽產業為對象，採用1981年至2004年台灣肉品價格與產量及相關變數年資料，應用計量模型分析國內畜禽市場結構，並利用高斯──塞德爾法（Gauss-Seidel method）估計移去各種關稅，對畜禽產業的影響效果，藉以評估關稅調降對國內畜禽產業之衝擊。實證結果顯示，若台灣畜禽產業的外在條件均保持2004年水準，關稅由2004年水準降為10%，毛豬產地價格每公斤下降0.32元或0.67%，每年供應量保持2004年水準；零售價格每公斤下降0.41元或0.31%；每人每年消費量增加0.51公斤或1.22%；每年進口數量增加4,990公噸或1.69%；毛豬飼料價格將下降0.139元。在肉雞產業方面，白色肉雞產地價格每公斤下降0.43元或1.61%，色肉雞1.2元或2.98%；供應量兩者分別下降1.91％及1.32%；兩者零售價格每公斤分別下降1.5元或2.2％及3.0元或2.8%；平均每人每年雞肉消費量分別增加0.01公斤或0.07％及0.47公斤或3.48%；平均每年雞肉進口量將增加19.19%；肉雞飼料價格將下降0.0209元。若關稅由10％再降為5%，對毛豬產業的影響不大，仍處於薄利生產情況。肉雞產業國內供應量減少或進口量增加的幅度均明顯大於毛豬產業，業者每公斤將虧損5-6元，產業結構須調整，規模小或成本高之肉雞業者將離開此產業。 Being a member of the WTO from 2002, Taiwan should phase out the import tariffs of meat. And it impacts on domestic livestock and poultry industry. This study applies the econometric model to analysis domestic livestock and poultry market structure, and uses the Gauss-Seidel method to estimate its impact effect by the annual data of Taiwan poultry quantities, price and related variables from 1981 through 2004. From the empirical results, if other things being equal on Taiwan's livestock and poultry industry in 2004, we could know the case that meat's tariff remain 10%, the farm prices of hogs would decrease 0.32 dollars per kilogram or 0.67%; quantities supplied will be the same as that in 2004; retail price would decrease 0.31%; quantities demanded would increase 1.22%; pork import would increase 1.69% and prices of mixed feed for hogs decrease 0.139 dollars per kilogram. The farm prices of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 1.61% and 2.98%; the quantities of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 1.91% and 1.32%; retail price decrease 2.2% and 2.8%; quantities demand increase 0.07% and 3.48%; broiler import increase 19.19%; prices of mixed Feed for broiler decrease 0.0209 dollars per kilogram. If the meat's tariff goes down 5%, the profit in livestock industry would decline to little, the producers would loss 5-6 dollars per kilogram and this would force Taiwan poultry industry to adjust.

Being a member of the WTO from 2002, Taiwan should phase out the import tariffs of meat. And it impacts on domestic livestock and poultry industry. This study applies the econometric model to analysis domestic livestock and poultry market structure, and uses the Gauss-Seidel method to estimate its impact effect by the annual data of Taiwan poultry quantities, price and related variables from 1981 through 2004. From the empirical results, if other things being equal on Taiwan's livestock and poultry industry in 2004, we could know the case that meat's tariff remain 10%, the farm prices of hogs would decrease 0.32 dollars per kilogram or 0.67%; quantities supplied will be the same as that in 2004; retail price would decrease 0.31%; quantities demanded would increase 1.22%; pork import would increase 1.69% and prices of mixed feed for hogs decrease 0.139 dollars per kilogram. The farm prices of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 1.61% and 2.98%; the quantities of both broiler and colorful broiler would decrease 1.91% and 1.32%; retail price decrease 2.2% and 2.8%; quantities demand increase 0.07% and 3.48%; broiler import increase 19.19%; prices of mixed Feed for broiler decrease 0.0209 dollars per kilogram. If the meat's tariff goes down 5%, the profit in livestock industry would decline to little, the producers would loss 5-6 dollars per kilogram and this would force Taiwan poultry industry to adjust.