農產品市場干擾與最適農產品價格目標區

Agricultural Market Disturbance and the Optimal Agricultural Price Target Zone

就許多國家而言，物價的穩定（包括農產品價格的穩定與非農產品價格的穩定）、匯率的穩定是政府、廠商、民眾所深切關心之問題。本文嘗試針對農產品價格目標區進行實事面的探討與規範面的分析。在實事面的部份，本文發現：當經濟體系出現干擾時，政府若設立農產品價格目標區，對農產品價格不一定存在蜜月效果，其決定於農產品「價格效果」與「財富效果及利率效果總和」之相對大小，與農業生產比重的相對高低。另外，在規範面的部份，政府在追求社會福利損失極小化的前提下，不管蜜月效果的存在與否，未必就應該實施農產品價格目標區。換言之，即使蜜月效果不存在，當政府較關心非農產品價格的設定時，基於社會最適化的考量，農產品價格仍應設立目標區。 For many countries, the stability of domestic price, including agricultural product prices and non-agricultural product prices, and exchange rate are the issues which are concerned deeply by the governments, firms and public. This paper focuses on the positive and normative analysis of the agricultural price target zone. On the positive side, it is found that whether the announcement by the government to defend the agricultural price target zone will reduce the volatility of agricultural product prices and nonagricultural product prices, depends upon: (i) the relative magnitude between the price effect and the sum of the wealth effect and interest rate effect of agricultural product; (ii) the weight ratio of agricultural product. In the normative side, it is found that honeymoon effect is not the main reason to affect the government to defend the agricultural price target zone under social welfare loss-minimizing. In other words, if the government aims at stabilizing non-agricultural product prices, the government should establish the agricultural price target zone even based on social optimal no matter honeymoon effect exists or not.

For many countries, the stability of domestic price, including agricultural product prices and non-agricultural product prices, and exchange rate are the issues which are concerned deeply by the governments, firms and public. This paper focuses on the positive and normative analysis of the agricultural price target zone. On the positive side, it is found that whether the announcement by the government to defend the agricultural price target zone will reduce the volatility of agricultural product prices and nonagricultural product prices, depends upon: (i) the relative magnitude between the price effect and the sum of the wealth effect and interest rate effect of agricultural product; (ii) the weight ratio of agricultural product. In the normative side, it is found that honeymoon effect is not the main reason to affect the government to defend the agricultural price target zone under social welfare loss-minimizing. In other words, if the government aims at stabilizing non-agricultural product prices, the government should establish the agricultural price target zone even based on social optimal no matter honeymoon effect exists or not.