入會關稅減讓對我國農業就業影響之事後一般均衡分析

An Ex Post General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of WTO Tariff Reform on the Taiwan's Agricultural Employment

受到景氣趨緩，國內整體失業率提升之影響，非農業部門失業人口回流農村，使得台灣加入WTO迄今，農業就業人口未減反增，顯現在經濟衝擊互相干擾下，實績資料將無法真確反應政策效應。相較於「事前預測」結果的應用限制，本文主要的研究目的，係於歷史存在的實境下，利用動態CGE模型「事後解析」關稅減讓對我國2002及2003年農業就業影響，其中各大類農產品非關稅之貿易障礙壁壘，並以關稅等量的處理方式，計算貿易扭曲程度。研究結果顯示：解析模擬期間雖因總體景氣趨緩而使台灣農業人口降幅因都市回流人口增加而趨平穩，但若離析加入WTO的貿易自由化效應，入會衝擊仍造成2002年農業就業減少2萬8千人，農業就業人數對總體就業貢獻衰退0.31個百分點；至2003年台灣農業就業負面影響進一步擴大達3萬7千人，就業貢獻減少0.41個百分點。面臨「高齡化」、「低教育程度」的台灣農業就業特徵，延續「農漁民第二專長訓練」，研訂鼓勵提早退休之「老年農民離農退休津貼」，進而構建更完善的農村社會安全體系，將有助於減緩入會對台灣農業就業發展之負面衝擊。而隨著加入WTO後農業就業需求的加速縮減，農業部門調節失業之功能勢將逐漸弱化。 This paper investigates the impact of WTO tariff reform on the rural labor market in Taiwan. This study adopts the ex post decomposition simulation approach, which is in the context of the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. This research finds that the overall economic sluggishness leads to the migration of urban population to rural areas and thereby slows down the decrease in agriculture population. However, when the effect of trade liberalization was decomposed, the simulation outcomes indicate that the impact of Taiwan's WTO tariff reduction slashes 28,000 and 37,000 persons in agriculture employment in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The results also reflect the agriculture labor forces outflow to the total employment are reduced by 0.31 and 0.41 percentage points in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Facing the demographic characteristics of agriculture employment in Taiwan, such as ”aging society” and ”low education”, two measures will be helpful to reduce the negative impact of WTO on Taiwan's agriculture development: the first measure is enhancing the ”second specialty training” for peasants and the second measure is establishing a ”retirement allowance system” to encourage the agriculture population to retire earlier.

This paper investigates the impact of WTO tariff reform on the rural labor market in Taiwan. This study adopts the ex post decomposition simulation approach, which is in the context of the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. This research finds that the overall economic sluggishness leads to the migration of urban population to rural areas and thereby slows down the decrease in agriculture population. However, when the effect of trade liberalization was decomposed, the simulation outcomes indicate that the impact of Taiwan's WTO tariff reduction slashes 28,000 and 37,000 persons in agriculture employment in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The results also reflect the agriculture labor forces outflow to the total employment are reduced by 0.31 and 0.41 percentage points in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Facing the demographic characteristics of agriculture employment in Taiwan, such as ”aging society” and ”low education”, two measures will be helpful to reduce the negative impact of WTO on Taiwan's agriculture development: the first measure is enhancing the ”second specialty training” for peasants and the second measure is establishing a ”retirement allowance system” to encourage the agriculture population to retire earlier.